Is it the End of Virat Kohli in Red-Ball Cricket for India?

5 min read
Oct 29, 2024, 1:38 PM
Virat Kohli

Virat Kohli (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

 

Virat Kohli has scored just 88 runs in four innings across the two Tests against New Zealand and looked a patch of the batter he once was. More than the lack of runs scored, it is the manner of his dismissals which has raised concerns about his deteriorating form and dwindling fortunes in red-ball cricket. Kohli missed a full toss from Mitchell Santner in the first innings, getting clean bowled, playing an uncharacteristic heave across the line. He has failed in three of the four innings in the ongoing series and his troubles against the spinners seem to be mounting.

RG analysis what is ailing Virat Kohli.

The Golden Period

Kohli was amongst the best batters in the world between 2016 and 2019 – these four years were his Golden Years in Test cricket and a period in which he aggregated 4208 runs in 43 matches at an average of 66.79 including 16 hundreds. He not only had a fantastic 50 to 100 conversion rate in this period but also was scoring his runs at a fair clip at a strike rate of 61.88 which was an indicator of his domination across the world.  

Kohli was the second-highest run-getter in the world in this time-frame with only Joe Root scoring 34 more runs but in 29 more innings! Kohli’s batting average in this period was the second-best only marginally behind Steven Smith amongst the 57 batters who had scored a minimum of 1000 runs in the period. He averages in excess of 75 in 2016 and 2017 and close to 70 in 2019! No batter had registered more tons than Kohli’s 16 in this time-frame.

However, a sudden dip in form post 2019 has seen his numbers plummet in the format.  

Massive dip in batting average

Kohli’s form suddenly went on the decline post the end of 2019. From the 1st of January, 2020, he has played 33 Tests and scored just 1833 runs at an average of 32.73 with only two tons. His frequency of scoring a hundred has gone down from one every 4.3 innings to one every 29 innings! His failure rate has gone up from 41.2% to 46.4%. From the number 2 run-getter in the world in the period between 2016-2019, Kohli is now at number 7 just for India. Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant, Ravindra Jadeja, Yashasvi Jaiswal and even R Ashwin, have all scored more runs than Kohli in this period.

Kohli did not score a Test hundred from November 2019 till March 2023 – a period spanning 41 innings. He scored just six fifties and averaged a meagre 25.7 in what was the worst phase of his Test career.

Numbers in India

Kohli has witnessed a dramatic decline in his numbers at home since 2020. He has an aggregate of 773 runs in 25 innings at an average of 32.2 with just one ton in India in the last five years – those are poor returns for a batter of his calibre. In comparison, Kohli was prolific in home conditions during his golden era between 2016-2019 – a period in which he hammered 2499 runs in 22 matches at a staggering average of 86.17 with 10 hundreds.

One of the main reasons for Kohli’s struggle in India since 2020 has been his dismal performance against the slower bowlers.

Problem vs spin

Kohli has struggled big-time against spinners since the start of 2020. He has scored 817 runs in 37 innings against their ilk getting dismissed on 25 occasions for a poor average of 32.68. His average comes down to below 30 (29.5) in India and 28.3 in Asia in this period where he has succumbed to spin in 22 of the 27 innings he has batted against them.

Kohli has been exceptionally poor against left-arm spin against whom he has scored just 285 runs in 26 innings with 11 dismissals at an average of 25.9 in Asia since 2020. 

Kohli had an average of 19.3 in 2020, 28.2 in 2021 and 26.5 in 2022. He regained some form last year and scored 671 runs in 12 innings at an average of 55.9 which included two hundreds. However, his numbers have again seen a sharp fall in 2024 where he has mustered just 245 runs in 10 innings at an average of 27.22 with no hundred and just one fifty.

Time is running out for King Kohli. He will be 36 in November. Is this the end of one of the greatest batters of the new millennium?

Nikhil Narain is a die-hard cricket romantic, published author, and has worked for some of the leading digital websites and broadcasters in India and overseas. An alumnus of the London School of Economics, Nikhil's forte is using data and numbers creatively to weave interesting stories and revolutionize the way cricket statistics are generated and analyzed.

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