How To Bet Responsibly On MLB

11 min read
Dec 27, 2023, 6:31 PM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Fact checked by:
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Founder
Last Updated: Sep 12, 2024, 11:08 AM

Betting on Baseball

Betting on baseball can be an exciting and engaging way to enhance your enjoyment of the sport. However, it is essential to approach it with caution and responsibility. This guide aims to provide comprehensive information on how to bet responsibly on baseball, helping you make informed decisions while avoiding common pitfalls. Whether you're new to baseball betting or looking to improve your strategies, this guide will cover everything you need to know.

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Understanding Baseball Betting

Basic Baseball Betting Terms

Before diving into the strategies and techniques, it's crucial to understand the basic terms used in baseball betting:

  • Moneyline: This is the most straightforward bet, where you pick the team you believe will win the game.
  • Run Line: Similar to point spreads in other sports, the run line typically adds or subtracts 1.5 runs from the favorite or underdog.
  • Totals (Over/Under): Betting on the total number of runs scored by both teams combined, over or under a specified number.

Types of Bets

There are various types of bets you can place in baseball, each with its unique characteristics:

  • Single-Game Bets: Bets placed on the outcome of a single game.
  • Series Bets: Betting on the outcome of a series of games, usually a best-of-three or best-of-seven series.
  • Futures Bets: Long-term bets on outcomes such as which team will win the World Series.
  • Prop Bets: Bets on specific events within a game, like the number of strikeouts by a pitcher.
  • Parlays: Combining multiple bets into one wager, with higher potential payouts but increased risk.

Setting a Budget

Importance of Setting a Budget

One of the most critical aspects of responsible betting is setting a budget. This ensures that you do not spend more than you can afford to lose.

Always bet with money you can afford to lose. Setting a budget is the first step towards responsible gambling.

How to Determine Your Budget

To determine your betting budget, consider your overall financial situation. Set aside a specific amount dedicated solely to betting and stick to it, regardless of wins or losses.

Tips for Sticking to Your Budget

  • Track Your Spending: Keep a record of all your bets to monitor your spending.
  • Set Betting Limits: Decide on a maximum amount per bet to avoid impulsive wagering.
  • Avoid Chasing Losses: Accept losses as part of the game and avoid the temptation to bet more to recover them.

Research and Analysis

Importance of Research in Baseball Betting

Research is a vital component of successful baseball betting. Making informed decisions based on thorough analysis can significantly improve your chances of winning.

Key Statistics to Consider

  • Team Statistics: Analyze team performance metrics such as win-loss records, batting averages, and ERA (Earned Run Average).
  • Player Statistics: Look at individual player stats, including batting averages, home runs, RBIs (Runs Batted In), and pitcher performance.
  • Pitching Matchups: Consider the starting pitchers' stats and their performance against the opposing team.
  • Recent Performance: Evaluate teams' and players' recent form to identify trends.

In baseball betting, knowledge is power. Comprehensive research can give you the edge you need.

Sources for Reliable Information

Utilize reputable sources for your research, such as official MLB websites, sports news outlets, and statistical databases like Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

Understanding MLB Odds

MLB betting odds mirror those found in other sports, presenting various markets at the leading baseball sportsbooks:

Moneyline Odds Format

This straightforward bet involves choosing the team you believe will win. Odds are indicated by a plus (for underdogs) or minus sign (for favorites).

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts: Chicago Cubs: -160 vs Milwaukee Brewers: +140
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With the Cubs at -160, they're the favorites. A $160 bet is required to win $100, reflecting the sportsbook's commission. On the other hand, a $100 bet on the underdog Brewers at +140 would return $140 in profit if they win.

Run Line Bets

Similar to point spreads, runline bets predict the victory margin in runs, usually set at 1.5.

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+130) vs. Miami Marlins +1.5 (-150)
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Betting on the Braves means they need to win by 2 or more runs. A $100 bet yields a $130 profit. For the Marlins, a loss by 1 run or a win secures the bet, but a $150 bet is needed for a $100 profit.

Totals (Over/Under Bets)

These bets are on the cumulative runs scored by both teams, with sportsbooks setting a run total for gamblers to bet over or under.

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts Over 9.5 runs: -110 vs. Under 9.5 runs: +110
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An over bet wins $100 for every $110 bet if total runs exceed 9.5. Conversely, betting under means winning $100 for every $100 bet if the total falls short of 9.5.

Prop Bets

Proposition bets span various outcomes beyond the final score, like individual performances or specific in-game events.

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts Fernando Tatis Jr. to steal a base: +250
null
A successful $100 bet on Tatis stealing a base at +250 returns $250 in profit.

Player Props

These focus on individual achievements, such as a player's hits or strikeouts.

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts Jacob deGrom over 8 strikeouts: -120
null
A bet on Jacob deGrom to exceed 8 strikeouts at -120 requires a $120 bet for a $100 profit.

Team Props

These bets relate to a team's overall performance, like scoring or defense within a game.

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts Houston Astros to score over 5.5 runs: +160
null
A $100 bet on the Astros scoring more than 5.5 runs at +160 wins $160 if successful.

NRFI & YRFI Props

First inning bets, predicting if the inning will be scoreless (NRFI) or not (YRFI), add early excitement.

  • Example: Calculating the Payouts NRFI (No Run First Inning): +130 or YRFI (Yes Run First Inning): -150
null
A $100 NRFI bet pays $130 profit for a scoreless first inning. A YRFI bet at -150 needs $150 to win $100 if any runs are scored.

Calculating Potential Winnings

To calculate potential winnings, multiply your stake by the odds. For American odds, convert them to decimal form if needed.

Finding Value in Odds

Value betting involves identifying bets where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the event occurring. This requires thorough research and analysis.

Value betting is about finding opportunities where the odds are in your favor. It requires patience and keen analytical skills.

Live in-Play Betting on MLB Games

In-play betting on MLB games offers the opportunity to bet on events as they happen, such as the result of the upcoming at-bat, if a team will notch runs in a certain inning, or predicting a homerun from a particular player during the match.

Benefits of Live Betting on MLB:
  • Informed Decision-Making: Watching the game progress allows for bets based on real-time performance assessments, like identifying a struggling pitcher or a batter in good form, leveraging this insight for better baseball betting decisions.
  • Increased Betting Options: A game rich in runs opens up numerous chances for betting, with each inning and at-bat offering fresh opportunities.
  • Dynamic Odds: As the game evolves, so do the odds, potentially offering more favorable conditions for bets you're considering, especially if you time your bets well.
Tips for Successful Live MLB Betting:
  • Stay Engaged with the Game: Keeping a keen eye on the gameplay helps in understanding how teams and players are shaping up, aiding in predicting future plays. Familiarity with teams’ dynamics, strengths, and strategies enhances betting outcomes.
  • Seize the Right Odds: Be vigilant for shifts in odds that work to your advantage and be prepared to place your bets swiftly before another shift.
  • Analyze the Game Context: Take into account the current state of the game, including the score, which inning it is, the number of outs, runners on base, the pitcher’s count, and the matchups between batters and pitchers to make more strategic bets.

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FAQs

How to Bet on the MLB

Is Betting on MLB Legal?

Betting on MLB within the United States can be legal, depending on the regulations of your particular state. While some states might not fully permit online betting and sportsbooks, there are ways to access offshore sportsbooks from states with stricter gambling rules. Remember, online betting is lawful once you've reached a certain age, adhering to legal requirements.

Key Types Of MLB Bets

What is the MLB Live Bet?

MLB live betting involves betting on MLB games while the game is ongoing, reacting to the unfolding action in real-time. These bets cover various outcomes, such as predicting the winner of the next inning, speculating if a run will be scored in the ongoing inning, or betting on who will secure the next hit. Engaging in live betting empowers you to capitalize on momentum shifts during the game, enabling more strategic and dynamic betting opportunities.

What is the Easiest Bet in MLB?

The most straightforward MLB bet, especially for beginners, is the moneyline bet. It's as simple as picking the team you think will win the game outright. Odds for each team are adjusted based on their perceived chances of winning to maintain fair betting. Underdogs offer higher potential payouts, while favorites come with lower payouts due to their higher probability of winning.

What is Over and Under in MLB?

The over/under or "total" refers to the total number of runs scored in a game by both teams combined. Sportsbooks will set a line for the total, and gamblers predict whether the final score will be over or under that total. For example, if the over/under for a game is set at 8 runs, you would bet over if you think the total score will be 9 runs or more and bet under if you think it will be 7 runs or less.

Tips on Emotional Management When Betting on MLB

How Do You Bet on MLB for Beginners?

For beginners, the best way to start betting on MLB is to focus on the basics. Study the teams, players, and stats to make informed picks. Start with easy bets like the moneyline or over/under before trying more complex options. 

<p>Sol has over 20 years of experience in writing for diverse industries including sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups. As the Editor-in-Chief at RG, Sol brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the role, focusing on delivering transparent, evidence-based content grounded in thorough research. Sol's mission is to empower readers to enjoy gambling responsibly and make informed decisions, enhancing their overall experience through insightful and engaging content. Under Sol's leadership, <a href="https://www.rg.org">RG</a> prioritizes the highest standards of integrity and reliability, ensuring that all information provided is accurate and trustworthy. Sol's dedication to transparency and research-based writing helps create a responsible gambling environment where readers can truly benefit from the content. This commitment to excellence has positioned RG as a leading source of information in the gambling industry.</p><p><strong>Experience:</strong></p><ul><li>Over 20 years in writing and editing across multiple industries</li><li>Former head of regional innovation at BMO Financial Group</li><li>Senior Writer, Online Casino Reports</li></ul>
Interests:
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Meet our Authors

Paruyr Shahbazyan began his business career in 2000 as a private entrepreneur. Over thirteen years, he developed a deep understanding for business and leadership, laying a solid foundation for his professional journey.

In 2013, Paruyr stepped into the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating. This online mass media platform, which he led until 2020, focused on providing in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting, earning a reputation for its quality content. 

Continuing his innovative approach in 2022, Paruyr co-founded Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol. This venture showcases his dedication to integrating advanced technology in the evolving landscape of sports betting. Through these diverse experiences, Paruyr has continuously influenced and shaped the betting industry, driving new trends and setting high standards.

 ExperienceYear
Engaged in private entrepreneurship2000-2013
Founder and President at Bookmaker Rating, an online platform focused on sports and betting2013-2020
Co-founder at Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol2022

"Innovation in sportsbetting comes from a deep understanding of both technology and the human element of sports." 

- Paruyr Shahbazyan, Founder, RG

 

Principles and Ethics

Paruyr Shahbazyan's core beliefs lie in the power of informed decision-making and integrity in the betting industry. He understands that the foundation of successful betting is not just about odds and predictions, but also about the trust and reliability of the information provided. Paruyr advocates for a betting environment where transparency and knowledge are paramount, ensuring that bettors are well-equipped with accurate data and insights.

Strategic Vision

Paruyr's vision is to revolutionize the sports betting industry through the integration of technology. He sees the future of betting as a blend of traditional sports knowledge with innovative tech solutions, like decentralized protocols, to enhance user experience and fairness. His aim is to create platforms that are not only user-friendly but also uphold the highest standards of ethical betting, contributing to a more responsible and enjoyable betting culture.

Future Perspectives

Looking towards the future, Paruyr envisions a betting landscape that is more inclusive, technologically advanced, and globally connected. He anticipates a significant shift towards more decentralized and transparent betting systems, driven by blockchain technology. Paruyr is committed to being at the forefront of this change, continuously exploring new possibilities and innovations that can redefine what it means to engage in sports betting in a digital world. His focus is on building systems that prioritize user empowerment, fairness, and the global growth of the sports betting community.

 

Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief

Sol has over 20 years of experience in writing for diverse industries including sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups. As the Editor-in-Chief at RG, Sol brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the role, focusing on delivering transparent, evidence-based content grounded in thorough research. Sol's mission is to empower readers to enjoy gambling responsibly and make informed decisions, enhancing their overall experience through insightful and engaging content. Under Sol's leadership, RG prioritizes the highest standards of integrity and reliability, ensuring that all information provided is accurate and trustworthy. Sol's dedication to transparency and research-based writing helps create a responsible gambling environment where readers can truly benefit from the content. This commitment to excellence has positioned RG as a leading source of information in the gambling industry.

Experience:

  • Over 20 years in writing and editing across multiple industries
  • Former head of regional innovation at BMO Financial Group
  • Senior Writer, Online Casino Reports
Cristina Varela Galan
Cristina Varela Galan
Problem Gambling Expert

Cristina used to work as a Psychology Assistant in the Bizkaia Pathological and Risky Gamblers Association. She was also part of a research team in Deusto University, specializing in pathological gambling area. While working there, she managed to develop her own project 

 â€śExploring the association between emotional regulation, alexithymia, stressful life events and gambling in adolescent and young adult women”.

Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer

Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.

Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022. 

Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the Responsible Gambler team.

Sergey Demidov
Sergey Demidov
Head of News Department

Sergey has been in sports journalism since 2007 as a reporter, editor, and manager. He has covered the Olympic Games, soccer World Cups, the World Cup of Hockey in 2016, the European championships, the Stanley Cup Finals, IOC events, and many others. Sergey interviewed the sport's greatest athletes, coaches, and executives. Since 2016, he has been an Independent Senior Editor of NHL.com/ru.

Anna Kravtcova
Anna Kravtcova
Problem Gambling Expert

Ph.D. in organizational psychology, an internationally certified psychologist (EuroPsy 2022, Cognitive behavioural therapy of mindfulness 2020, International Society for Emotional Intelligence 2017, Russian Psychological society 2014, American Psychological Association(Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychologist) 2011), speaker of many international conferences (USA, Brazil, Portugal, Czech Republic, Russia, etc.). TEDx speaker.

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