How to Bet Responsibly on the NFL

Betting on the NFL comes with unique challenges and opportunities. With only 17 regular-season games per team and the highly competitive nature of the league, NFL bettors often face a small margin for error. Here are some best practices to ensure you’re betting responsibly on the NFL:

1. Manage Your Bankroll Carefully
The NFL season is short compared to other sports, so each game feels crucial. It's easy to overcommit, especially during big matchups like Sunday Night Football or the playoffs. Set a clear bankroll for the season and divide it wisely across games. Avoid putting too much on any single game, no matter how confident you feel.

2. Limit Your Bets on Parlays
NFL parlays can be tempting because they offer large payouts for combining multiple bets. However, the odds of hitting a multi-leg parlay are slim. While it's okay to try small parlays for fun, don’t rely on them as your main betting strategy. Stick to single-game wagers where you have a higher probability of success.

3. Factor in Weather Conditions
The NFL is unique in that many games are played outdoors, often in adverse weather conditions like snow, rain, or wind. Weather can significantly impact player performance, game plans, and overall outcomes. Always check the weather forecast before placing bets, especially on total points (over/under) or passing yards props.

4. Understand Team Matchups
NFL betting requires an understanding of how teams match up against each other. Some teams excel at stopping the run, while others struggle against high-powered passing attacks. Study team strengths and weaknesses to avoid blanket assumptions based on overall records.

5. Avoid Betting on Too Many Games
Unlike other sports with daily games, the NFL’s weekly schedule can lead bettors to overextend themselves, betting on too many games in a single weekend. It’s crucial to be selective and only bet on games where you’ve done thorough research. More bets don't mean more chances of winning; instead, focus on quality.

6. Stay Disciplined During the Playoffs
The NFL playoffs are high-stakes, and emotions run high for fans and bettors alike. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement and place larger-than-usual bets during the playoffs and Super Bowl. Stick to your established betting strategy, and don’t let the excitement lead to poor decision-making or chasing losses.

Examples from the NFL

• 2022 AFC Championship Game: Many bettors placed heavy wagers on the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, based on their regular-season dominance. However, the Bengals had consistently outperformed against strong offenses, particularly late in games. Bettors who considered Cincinnati's resilience and the Chiefs’ late-game struggles found value in backing the underdog.
• 2021 Super Bowl LV: The Kansas City Chiefs were favored against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ho
• wever, bettors who took into account Tampa’s defensive strengths and Kansas City’s banged-up offensive line saw the opportunity to bet on Tampa Bay, who dominated the game.

NFL betting isn’t just about knowing the teams; it’s about understanding the nuances of each matchup. A 9-3 team might be vulnerable to a team with a strong defense, no matter their record.

Odds are presented differently, typically based on where you are located geographically. Here are the three main odds formats that you can expect to see when betting on the NFL:

American Odds Format (Moneyline Odds)

American odds, also known as Moneyline odds, are characterized by a negative (-) or positive (+) sign. The negative sign indicates the favored team, while the positive sign marks the underdog.

• Consider an NFL game with the following odds:
  • New England Patriots: -500 Miami Dolphins: +350
  • The negative odds (-500) for the New England Patriots suggest they are favored to win. You would need to bet $500 on the Patriots to potentially profit $100 if they win. Conversely, the positive odds (+350) for the Miami Dolphins indicate they are the underdogs. A $100 bet on the Dolphins will yield a profit of $350 if they come out victorious.
• Note: The odds (-500 and +350) are not directly comparable due to the sportsbook's juice, which is their built-in commission.

Decimal Odds Format

Popular in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe, decimal odds format is straightforward. It shows the total payout per dollar wagered, making it easy to spot favorites and underdogs.

• Here is an NFL game with decimal odds:
  • Dallas Cowboys: 2.50 Green Bay Packers: 1.60
  • A $100 bet on the Dallas Cowboys at 2.50 odds will potentially return $250 ($100 bet + $150 profit). Meanwhile, a $100 bet on the Green Bay Packers at 1.60 odds would return $160 ($100 bet + $60 profit).

Fractional Odds Format

Used primarily in the UK and Ireland, fractional odds are expressed as a ratio (e.g., 5/1). They indicate the potential profit relative to the stake, with the first number representing the potential profit and the second the bet.

• Here is how fractional odds work:
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 7/2 Seattle Seahawks: 4/5
  • A $2 bet on the Philadelphia Eagles at 7/2 odds would return $7 profit, making the total payout $9. On the other hand, a winning $5 bet on the Seattle Seahawks at 4/5 odds would yield a profit of $4, for a total return of $9. The Eagles, with higher potential profit, are the underdogs, while the Seahawks, with lower potential winnings, are the favorites.

The National Football League (NFL) stands at the forefront of sports betting, presenting a vast array of betting options that cater to both novice and seasoned bettors. Among the foundational betting types are the point spread, moneyline, and totals (over/under) bets, which form the bedrock of NFL betting. These standard options are complemented by more complex betting structures such as parlays and teasers.  

Parlays in the NFL allow bettors to consolidate multiple bets into a single wager, with the requirement that all selected bets win for the parlay to payout. This arrangement amplifies the potential returns but also elevates the risk. Teasers offer a twist on parlays, enabling bettors to modify the point spreads or totals in their favor, albeit at the expense of diminished payouts.

Proposition bets, or prop bets, are particularly prevalent in the NFL landscape. These bets enable wagering on specific events within a game or on individual player performances, adding a layer of depth and excitement to the betting experience.  

Moreover, the NFL betting market has expanded to include same-game parlays, a relatively new innovation that allows bettors to combine various bets from a single game into one parlay. This can include wagers on the game's point spread, total points, and specific player achievements. The introduction of over/under bets on player statistics further enriches the NFL betting scene, offering detailed and player-focused betting avenues.

The NFL's betting market is dynamic, constantly evolving with the introduction of new betting types and strategies. This diversity not only caters to a broad spectrum of betting preferences but also reflects the intricate nature of the game and its widespread appeal among sports betting enthusiasts.

Understanding Football Betting Basics

Strategies and Advanced Betting Concepts

Practical Aspects and Responsible Betting

Related Articles

Meet our Authors