Understanding Responsible Betting on the NFL

The NFL is the most wagered-on league in the United States, dominating the sports betting sector. With its massive fan base of 17.9 million viewers per game, strategic gameplay, and high stakes, it's no surprise that $35 bn is expected to be wagered on NFL games during the 2024/25 season. Super Bowl LVIII alone saw $23.1 billion in wagers placed by an estimated 67.8 million people—representing over 20% of the U.S. population.

NFL betting offers a variety of bet types, from simple moneyline bets to complex parlays, player and team prop bets, and futures markets. This diversity and the league’s popularity make NFL betting popular among seasoned bettors and newcomers, respectively. However, its popularity also means that bettors must understand the importance of responsible NFL betting practices so that this pastime does not come with problem gambling behavior.

Responsible betting on the NFL involves engaging with sports betting in a manner that prioritizes informed decision-making, financial safeguards, and emotional awareness. It does not advocate betting but provides a framework for those participating.

Key aspects of responsible football betting include:

• Setting Deposit and Wagering Limits: Establish clear financial boundaries to avoid overspending.
• Realistic Expectations: Recognize that betting is not a reliable income source and should never be depended upon as such.
• Avoiding Emotional Betting: Always base wagers on research and data analysis rather than emotions. Just because you are a New York Giants fan doesn't mean they will beat the favorite.
• Taking Time Outs: Regularly taking time outs from sports betting is crucial to avoid problem gambling behavior.
• Comparing Odds: Always shop around and learn how to compare NFL odds across multiple online sportsbooks to ensure you get the best possible value.
• Understanding Betting Markets: Choose your NFL betting markets wisely. While parlay bets (multi-leg wagers that require all legs to win to payout) can offer high returns, their multi-leg requirements make them significantly harder to win. Straightforward bets, like money lines or point spread, are a more consistent approach.

Choosing an NFL Betting Budget

Your budget will greatly affect your ability to bet responsibly on NFL games. Understanding this can help bettors make better decisions, avoid pitfalls, and control wagering activity.

Financial Limits and Budgeting

Setting and adhering to a clear betting budget is fundamental to responsible gambling. Without a financial plan, it’s easy to overspend.

• Recommended Budget: Responsible gambling best practices suggest spending no more than 1-5% of your disposable income on betting. Disposable income is what remains after covering essential expenses like rent, utilities, groceries, and debt payments.
• Example: Suppose a bettor earns $4,000 monthly after taxes, with $3,000 allocated to essential expenses. Their disposable income is $1,000, so their gambling budget should range between $10 (1%) and $50 (5%) monthly. Staying within this range ensures gambling remains a recreational activity and does not compromise financial security.

To further reinforce these limits, bettors can use deposit limit tools offered by sportsbooks like FanDuel or BetMGM, allowing daily, weekly, or monthly caps on deposits.

Betting Without a Plan

Betting without a strategy will lead to bad decisions and unnecessary losses. Start with simple bets like moneyline or point spread before moving on to parlays. (We’ll get to responsible strategies and bet types later on this page.)

Overconfidence in Parlays

Parlays and Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are enticing because of the big payouts, but their chances of winning are much lower than single bets. Stick to simple bets like point spread or NFL totals for better odds.
Fact: Sportsbooks make more money from parlays because of their lower probability of winning.

Not Looking for Value in Odds

Not comparing NFL odds across sportsbooks will reduce your winnings.
Fact: Odds can differ greatly between sportsbooks; a $100 bet can win $20-$30 more at a sportsbook with better odds. (We will present a real odds comparison in more detail later on this page).

Emotional Betting

Betting because of loyalty to a team instead of research and analysis will result in losses. Avoid emotional decisions and use stats, trends, and historical data for betting. (Examples of analyzing stats and resources will be covered later on).

Chasing Losses

Unfortunately, trying to regain losses by betting more is a common and dangerous habit. Learning to set betting limits to avoid bad decisions is crucial to ensuring NFL betting remains enjoyable and responsible.
Fact: Chasing losses is one of the top signs of problem gambling.

Ignoring Key Metrics and Trends

Betting without looking at team and player trends will lead to bad decisions. The best free resources to check this data are NFL.com in the stats section or the Pro Football database. Paid services like NFL Next Gen Stats are also available.

Not Understanding Types of Bets

If you do not understand what the betting markets mean, you will not be successful. Understanding bet types is crucial for success and we will talk about this in the next section.
Example: If you do not understand NFL point spreads it will lead to confusion and bad results. A half-point difference, -6.5 instead of -7, can greatly affect your potential payout.

Betting Too Late

Waiting until the game starts to bet will get you less favorable odds and missed opportunities.
Fact: It is better to research and bet early to get the best opening odds before the market adjusts throughout the week before the game.

The NFL offers various betting options, from basic moneyline odds to complex same-game parlays. Understanding these markets is key, whether you're learning how to bet on NFL games or refining your betting strategy. Below, we explore 11 popular NFL betting markets and look at their difficulty and examples of each.

Understand the difficulty levels before placing your bets. Start simple, know your limits, and always bet within your means.

1. NFL Moneyline Bets

• Difficulty: Easy
  Moneyline betting is straightforward: pick the team you think will win the game outright. There’s no need to consider the point spread or total points.
• Example: In Week 5, the New England Patriots (+120) faced the Miami Dolphins (-140). A successful moneyline wager on the Patriots brought a $120 profit on a $100 bet.

2. Point Spread Bets

• Difficulty: Moderate
  Point spread bets require understanding how a team might perform relative to an assigned point spread. Betting correctly involves analyzing whether a favored team can win by more than the spread or if the underdog can stay within it.
• Example: The New York Giants were +7.5 underdogs in Week 8 against the Steelers. Despite losing 24-20, the Giants covered the point spread, and the bet won.
• Why Moderate: Balances risk and reward, making it popular among intermediate bettors.

3. Totals (Over/Under)

• Difficulty: Moderate
  Totals betting involves predicting whether the total points scored by both teams in a game will be over or under a set line.
• Example: In Week 10, the 49ers and Buccaneers had a total line of 48.5. A final score of 23-20 hit for the under.
• Why Moderate: Understanding team scoring trends and defenses is key to success.

4. Live Betting

• Difficulty: Moderate to Very Difficult
  Live betting allows wagers during games, shifting odds based on real-time events. It requires quick decision-making.
• Example: During Week 9, the Cincinnati Bengals were underdogs before scoring two consecutive touchdowns, flipping the odds in their favor.
• Why Moderate to Very Challenging NFL Bets: Requires watching games closely and reacting to changes quickly.

5. Team Prop Bets

• Difficulty: Moderate to Difficult
  Team prop bets focus on team-specific outcomes, like touchdowns or first-half points. They’re less risky than player props but require a strong understanding of team tendencies.
• Example: The New York Giants had a 2.5-touchdown line in Week 4. Bettors who took the over lost after they scored only one touchdown and three field goals.
• Why Moderate to Challenging: Easier than player props but still dependent on team consistency.

6. Player Prop Bets

• Difficulty: Challenging
  Player props focus on individual player performances, such as passing yards or touchdowns. Predicting performance requires an in-depth analysis of matchups and form.
• Example: Joe Burrow’s Week 7 passing line was 295.5 yards. He threw for 310 yards, hitting the over.
• Why Challenging: Injuries, game flow, and coaching decisions can affect outcomes.

7. Same Game Parlays (SGPs)

• Difficulty: Difficult to Very Difficult
  SGPs combine multiple bets within the same NFL game, such as player props and totals.
• Example: An SGP might include Aaron Rodgers throwing over 250.5 yards, the Green Bay Packers winning, and the game total going over 49.5 points.
• Why Very Difficult: Requires perfect predictions across multiple scenarios in one game.

8. First Touchdown Scorer

• Difficulty: Difficult to Very Difficult
  This prop bet predicts which player will score the first touchdown in a game.
• Example: Derrick Henry was +650 to score first against the New England Patriots. Bettors who placed $100 won $650 when they scored first.
• Why Very Difficult: The random scoring makes it one of the riskiest betting options.

9. Parlays

• Difficulty: Very Difficult
  Parlays combine multiple bets from different games into a single wager. All legs must win for the bet to win.
• Example: A parlay involving the Cincinnati Bengals moneyline, the New England Patriots covering a -3.5 point spread, and an over on total points would require all conditions to hit for a payout.
• Why Very Difficult: The more legs added, the lower the probability of success, especially when looking at multiple games and teams.

10. Futures Bets

• Difficulty: Very Difficult
  A futures bet focuses on long-term outcomes, like the Super Bowl winner or player awards. These bets are speculative and influenced by season-long events.
• Example: Before the season, the Philadelphia Eagles were +900 to win the big game. Their odds improved to +500 mid-season.
• Why Very Difficult: Injuries, forms, and unforeseen events make these bets unpredictable.

11. Season-Long Player Props

• Difficulty: Challenging
  These futures bets focus on a player’s performance throughout the NFL season.
• Example: Patrick Mahomes was projected to throw for over 4,500.5 yards before the season. Bettors monitoring his progress mid-season found he was on pace to exceed this.
• Why Challenging: Requires patience and anticipates player performance over months.

Analyzing metrics is crucial for responsible NFL betting. For example, research using NFL Next Gen statistics has proven that more cautious quarterbacks win more games during the regular season, playoffs, and even more Super Bowl Championships, a stat that would be useful when placing a Futures bet or a prop bet.

Team and Player Metrics

• Passer Rating: Measures quarterback efficiency. By analyzing this metric, bettors can place a more informed prop bet as cautious QBs score more points and win more games on average.
• Points Against: Assesses how many points a team's defense has allowed. This is useful for bettors placing an over/under bet because it clarifies the determination of the potential final score.
• Yards Per Play: Highlights offensive and defensive efficiency. A bettor could leverage this metric to wager on a team's prop bets, including yards for (offense) and yards against (defense).

Historical Performance Trends

Incorporating historical data can reveal patterns that are also useful for predicting the future. For example:

• Teams after Bye Weeks: Historically, teams with a bye week in the middle or towards the end of the regular season may perform slightly better than those with a bye week at the beginning of the year. This would make a bet on a team that has just come off a break a better bet towards the end of the season.
• Weather Impacts: Snow, wind, and cold typically impact both teams equally, with little effect on the point spread or moneyline. However, extreme weather significantly reduced the total points scored. According to FOX research, the under has hit 54% of games with winds over 20 mph since 2015, with even stronger winds showing a more pronounced trend.

Point Spread and Line Movement

Point spreads are created to level the playing field between teams of varying strengths. The sportsbook assigns a margin of victory (the spread) that the favored team must exceed for bets on that team to win. For example:

• Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
• A bet on the Chiefs wins only if they win by seven points or more.

Line movement occurs when sportsbooks adjust the spread based on factors like:

• Injury Updates: Losing a key player can shift spreads by many points.
• Public Money: Heavy betting on one side can prompt sportsbooks to adjust lines to balance wagers.
• Sharp Bettors: Professional bettors influencing early lines based on insider knowledge or analysis.

Betting Against the Public

Contrarian betting, or betting against the public, involves wagering on outcomes where most casual bettors are on the opposite side. Betting against the public has seen some winners, as public sentiment often inflates lines for popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys or Green Bay Packers.

Understanding Juice (Vig)

The juice, or vig, is the sportsbook’s commission for taking bets. It ensures profitability regardless of the outcome. For example:

• If the odds on a Minnesota Vikings point spread are -110, a bettor must wager $110 to win $100.
• Juice can vary between sportsbooks, so comparing odds is essential for maximizing potential value.

Depending on where you are located in the US, you will have varying sportsbook options. Let's say you are based in New Jersey and can access all twelve licensed online NJ sportsbooks.

The first step must be to read real users' sportsbook reviews. The more reviews there are, the better, as they can provide insights into other bettors' experiences with the operator you're considering.

Next, you'll want to compare the odds of the specific market you're considering. For example, if you decide to make a longshot futures bet on which team will win the Super Bowl, here are the odds from three of the most reviewed sportsbooks in NJ (accurate on Dec. 12, 2024):

As you can see, a $100 bet on the Lions to win the Super Bowl will award you $20 more at BetRivers than at BetMGM.
3. Lastly, ensure the operator has responsible gambling tools. Ensuring a responsible gambling experience is ensuring you have the tools and resources to do so. For example, BetMGM, FanDuel, and BetRivers all offer bettors:

• Deposit Limits: Allows bettors to set daily, weekly, or monthly limits on how much money they can deposit into their account.
• Self-Exclusion: Allows bettors to voluntarily exclude themselves from accessing their account and participating in any betting activities for a specific period of time.
• Time-Out Periods: Allows bettors to take a short break from their sportsbook account, ranging from 24 hours to 30 days.
• Reality Checks: Sends bettors regular reminders of how long they have been playing and the amount they have spent.
• Loss Limits: Allows bettors to limit the amount of money they can lose within a specified period.
• Access to Support Organizations: Provides access to organizations that help with problem gambling, such as the National Council on Problem Gambling and Gamblers Anonymous.
• Educational Resources: Provides educational resources and information on the risks of sports gambling, how to recognize problem gambling, and how to make informed decisions.

We’ve covered the main points of responsible NFL betting, so here’s a quick recap and why it matters:

• Why Responsible NFL Betting Matters: Responsible betting is important so we can keep betting fun and not stressful. Millions of Americans are affected by gambling addiction, so responsible gambling practices are crucial.
• NFL Sports Betting Popularity: The National Football League is the biggest sports betting market in the US, with millions of bettors yearly. With high stakes and many options to bet on, understanding the risks and complexities of NFL betting is key to not getting hurt.
• What is Responsible NFL Betting: Responsible betting is financial safeguards, realistic expectations, and emotional awareness. Key practices like setting deposit limits, avoiding emotional decisions, and comparing odds will help you stay in control.
• Factors of Responsible NFL Betting: From budget management to metric understanding, we covered how personal habits, market trends, and available tools impact responsible betting. These are key to making informed decisions and not making common mistakes.
• NFL Betting Mistakes: We listed common mistakes, like chasing losses, betting emotionally, and overcommitting to parlays that bettors make. Knowing these mistakes will help minimize risk and enjoy the betting experience.
• NFL Betting Markets: A breakdown of the popular markets, moneyline, point spread, and futures bets, gave us an idea of the complexity of NFL betting. Choosing the right market based on knowledge and experience is key to informed betting.
• Using Data and Metrics: Using performance data, weather trends, and betting line movements will help you make better decisions. Metrics like yards per play are must-have tools for bettors looking to refine their strategy.
• Which Sportsbook to Use: We covered sportsbook selection, comparing odds, reading reviews, and having access to responsible gambling tools. A good sportsbook will make the betting experience better and safer.

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