NFL Playoff Prop Betting: Getting Started With Playoff Props

12 min read
Oct 11, 2024, 10:45 AM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Last Updated: Nov 8, 2024, 11:45 AM

All About NFL Playoff Props

The NFL playoffs are the best of it all, where everything is bigger, more intense and every play can change a team’s fate. For fans and bettors alike this is the time to get more into the sport.

NFL playoff prop bets have gotten super popular and offer a ton of options beyond just betting. This guide will get you started with playoff props, explain different strategies and help you make smart decisions while being responsible.

All About Prop Bets

What is a Prop Bet?

An NFL prop bet, short for proposition bet, is a bet on a specific event or outcome within a game that doesn’t have to do with the exact final score or result.

These bets are focused on individual player performance, team stats or events that happen during the game and are different than NFL Same Game Parlay bets. Props add an extra layer to NFL games so you can get in on more of the action.

Props have become popular because of the entertainment value and added depth to sports betting.

Examples of NFL Props:

  • Player Props: Betting on if a quarterback will go over or under a certain number of passing yards.
  • First Touchdown Scorer: Betting on who will score the first touchdown in an NFL game.
  • Total Team Points: Betting if a team will go over or under a certain number of points.

Props can be fun but bet within your means. Set a budget for your betting and don’t chase losses.

Prop Bet Strategy

Having a solid strategy is key to winning in NFL betting. Here are some things to consider:

Research and Analysis

  • Player Performance: Look at recent stats of NFL players. For example, how has a quarterback done against good defenses or a running back against teams with a weak run defense.
  • Team Dynamics: Consider injuries, especially to key positions like the offensive line or pass catchers which can impact a team’s offense.
  • Matchup History: Look at past games between teams. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Tennessee Titans, look at their previous games.

NFL Betting Markets

  • Types of Bets: Get to know the different NFL betting markets, player props, team props and game props.
  • Odds Comparison: Use multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds for your bets.
  • Line Movement: Watch how the NFL odds move leading up to the game, that’s where the public and sharp money is going.

Never bet on emotions or gut feeling. Informed betting reduces big losses.

NFL Player Props

NFL player props are focused on individual performance in a game. They’ve become popular because of their correlation with fantasy football and the stats available to analyze.

Popular NFL Player Props

  • Passing Yards: Betting on quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Kirk Cousins to go over or under a certain number of yards.
  • Rushing Yards: Betting on running backs like Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara to go over a certain number of yards.
  • Receiving Yards: Betting on wide receivers like Justin Jefferson or Davante Adams to go over a certain number of yards.
  • Touchdowns: Betting if a player will score a touchdown, first touchdown scorer or anytime touchdown scorer.

Things to Consider

  • Recent Form: Look at a player’s last few games to see trends.
  • Opposing Defense: Look at how the opposing team defends certain positions. For example if the Buffalo Bills have a weak pass defense, it might be good to bet on a quarterback’s passing yards.
  • Injuries and Weather: External factors like player injuries or bad weather can impact player performance.

Avoid placing bets on players or games you are not familiar with. Stick to what you know to make more informed decisions.

Prop bets can be fun and engaging, but it's essential to bet within your means. Set a budget for your wagering activities and avoid chasing losses.

NFL Prop Bet Strategy

Developing a solid strategy is crucial for success in NFL betting. Here are some key considerations:

Research and Analysis

  • Player Performance: Examine recent statistics of NFL players. For instance, analyze how a quarterback has performed against strong defenses or how a running back fares against teams with a weak run defense.
  • Team Dynamics: Consider factors like injuries, especially to key positions like the offensive line or pass catchers, which can significantly impact a team's offense.
  • Matchup History: Look at past encounters between teams. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Tennessee Titans, reviewing their previous games can provide insights.

Understanding NFL Betting Markets

  • Variety of Wagers: Familiarize yourself with different NFL betting markets, including player prop bets, team props, and game props.
  • Odds Comparison: Use multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds for your desired bets.
  • Line Movement: Pay attention to how NFL betting odds change leading up to the game, as this can indicate where the public and sharp money is going.
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Always base your bets on thorough research rather than emotions or hunches. Informed betting reduces the risk of significant losses.

NFL Player Props

NFL player props focus on individual performances within a game. These bets have gained popularity due to their alignment with fantasy football interests and the detailed statistics available for analysis.

Popular NFL Player Props

  • Passing Yards: Betting on quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Kirk Cousins to exceed or fall short of a specific yardage.
  • Rushing Yards: Wagering on running backs such as Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara to surpass a certain number of rushing yards.
  • Receiving Yards: Betting on wide receivers like Justin Jefferson or Davante Adams to achieve over a set number of receiving yards.
  • Touchdowns Scored: Predicting whether a player will score a touchdown, such as the first touchdown scorer or anytime touchdown scorer.

Factors to Consider

  • Recent Form: Assess a player's performance over the last few games to identify trends.
  • Opposing Defense: Analyze how the opposing team's defense fares against certain positions. For example, if the Buffalo Bills have a weak pass defense, it might be advantageous to bet on a quarterback's passing yards.
  • Injuries and Weather: External factors like player injuries or adverse weather conditions can significantly impact player performances.
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Avoid placing bets on players or games you are not familiar with. Stick to what you know to make more informed decisions.

Top NFL Player Props for Today

To illustrate how to apply these strategies, consider the following hypothetical player props for upcoming playoff games:

PlayerTeamOpponentProp BetLineOdds
Patrick MahomesKansas City ChiefsBaltimore RavensTotal Passing Yards Over/Under325.5 yards-110
Derrick HenryTennessee TitansCleveland BrownsRushing Yards Over/Under105.5 yards-110
Justin JeffersonMinnesota VikingsGreen Bay PackersReceiving Yards Over/Under95.5 yards-110
Lamar JacksonBaltimore RavensKansas City ChiefsTotal Rushing Yards Over/Under75.5 yards-110
Travis KelceKansas City ChiefsBaltimore RavensFirst Touchdown ScorerN/A+600
Josh AllenBuffalo BillsNew England PatriotsPassing Touchdowns Over/Under2.5 touchdowns+120
Alvin KamaraNew Orleans SaintsTampa Bay BuccaneersTotal Receptions Over/Under6.5 receptions-110
Nick ChubbCleveland BrownsTennessee TitansRushing Yards Over/Under85.5 yards-110
Analysis Example

If the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Baltimore Ravens, and you believe that the Ravens have a weaker pass defense, betting on Patrick Mahomes to exceed 325.5 passing yards could be a viable option.

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Remember that no bet is a sure thing. Always consider the risk involved and never wager more than you can afford to lose.

NFL Betting

Understanding the broader landscape of NFL betting can enhance your prop betting strategy.

NFL Betting Markets

  • Moneyline Bets: Wager on which team will win the game outright.
  • Point Spread: Bet on a team to win by a certain margin or not lose by more than a specified number of points.
  • Over/Under (Totals): Predict whether the total points scored by both teams will be over or under a set number.
  • Futures Bets: Long-term bets on outcomes like which team will win the Super Bowl or who will be the MVP.

NFL Betting Odds

Odds represent the likelihood of an event occurring and determine your potential payout.

  • American Odds: Displayed as positive or negative numbers (e.g., -110, +200).
  • Negative Odds (-): Indicate the favorite. You need to bet the amount shown to win $100.
  • Positive Odds (+): Indicate the underdog. You win the amount shown on a $100 bet.
  • Decimal Odds: Common internationally, showing the total payout per unit staked.
  • Fractional Odds: Traditional in the UK, expressed as fractions (e.g., 5/1).
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Always understand how odds work before placing a bet. Misinterpreting odds can lead to unexpected losses.

NFL Playoff Prop Bets

NFL playoff prop bets offer unique opportunities due to the heightened intensity and do-or-die nature of playoff games.

Why Playoff Props Are Different

  • High Stakes: Teams may alter their strategies, leading to unpredictable outcomes.
  • Player Motivation: Star players often elevate their performances in crucial moments.
  • Limited Games: Fewer games allow for more focused analysis.

NFL Playoff Prop Bet Picks

Consider the following when selecting your bets:

  • Team Trends: Assess how teams have performed in previous playoff appearances.
  • Defense vs. Offense Matchups: For example, if the Los Angeles Chargers have a strong defense against the run, it might be risky to bet on an opposing running back's rushing yards.
  • Weather Conditions: Playoff games in January can be affected by cold weather, impacting the passing game.

Example Picks:

  • Total Passing Yards Over/Under: Betting on Josh Allen to exceed 300 passing yards against the New England Patriots.
  • First Touchdown Scorer: Wagering on Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers to score the first touchdown.
  • Total Sacks Over/Under: Betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense to record over 3.5 sacks in a game.
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Be cautious with bets that have high payouts but low probabilities. It's often better to focus on bets with more predictable outcomes.

NFL Playoff Prop Bet Futures

  • Futures bets during the playoffs can be particularly exciting:
  • Super Bowl Winner: Betting on teams like the Kansas City Chiefs or Green Bay Packers to win the championship.
  • MVP Awards: Wagering on players like Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers to win the Super Bowl MVP.
  • Most Passing Yards in Playoffs: Predicting which quarterback will accumulate the most passing yards throughout the playoffs.
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Futures bets tie up your funds for an extended period. Ensure this doesn't interfere with your overall betting budget.

Expert Picks and Predictions

Leveraging expert analysis can provide valuable insights but should complement your own research.

Expert NFL Prop Bet Picks

  • Analyst Opinions: Follow reputable analysts from networks like ESPN or NFL Network.
  • Statistical Models: Utilize advanced metrics and predictive models to inform your bets.
  • Consensus Picks: Look for where experts agree, which can indicate stronger confidence in a particular outcome.
    • Example: If multiple experts predict that Justin Jefferson will exceed his receiving yards line against a team with a weak secondary, it might be a prop bet worth considering.
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Use expert opinions as a guide, not a guarantee. Always conduct your own analysis.

SNF Betting Bankroll Management

Recap of NFL Playoff Prop Bets

Engaging with NFL playoff prop bets adds excitement and depth to your playoff viewing experience. Remember the following key points:

  1. Understand Prop Bets: Know what you're betting on and how prop bets differ from traditional wagers.
  2. Develop a Strategy: Base your bets on research, statistics, and a clear understanding of the game.
  3. Consider Player and Team Dynamics: Injuries, weather, and recent performance can all impact outcomes.
  4. Shop for the Best Odds: Use multiple sportsbooks to find the most favorable odds.
  5. Practice Responsible Gambling: Set a budget, avoid chasing losses, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

By following these guidelines, you can enjoy the thrills of playoff prop betting while minimizing risks.

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If you feel that gambling is affecting your life negatively, seek assistance from professional organizations dedicated to helping individuals with gambling problems.

NFL Playoff Prop Betting FAQs

Understanding NFL Prop Bets

What are NFL Prop Bets?

NFL prop bets, short for proposition bets, are wagers on specific events within an NFL game that are not directly related to the final score or outcome. These can include individual player performances, such as total passing yards or rushing yards, as well as team statistics and other occurrences. Prop bets add depth to NFL betting by allowing bettors to focus on various aspects of the game beyond traditional betting markets.

How do NFL Player Props Work?

NFL player props are a type of prop bet that focuses on individual player statistics and achievements during a game. For example, you might wager on a quarterback to throw over a certain number of passing yards or a running back to accumulate over a set amount of rushing yards. NFL player props enhance the betting experience by allowing you to engage with specific players and their performances.

How Do Odds Work in NFL Prop Betting?

Odds in NFL prop betting represent the likelihood of a specific event occurring and determine the potential payout of a wager. They can be displayed in formats such as American odds (e.g., -110), decimal odds, or fractional odds. Understanding NFL odds is crucial for assessing the risk and reward of each prop bet. For instance, a bet with odds of -110 means you need to wager $110 to win $100.

What is a Same Game Parlay?

A same game parlay is a betting option that allows you to combine multiple bets (props) from a single NFL game into one parlay wager. For example, you could bet on the Chicago Bears to win, the quarterback to throw over 250 passing yards, and a specific player to score a touchdown—all in the same game. Same game parlays offer higher potential payouts but come with increased risk, as all individual bets must win for the parlay to be successful.

Types of NFL Prop Bets

What Are the Most Popular Types of Prop Bets?

The most popular types of prop bets focus on player statistics and game events. These include:

  1. Player Prop Bets: Wagers on individual performances, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
  2. Team Props: Bets on team-specific outcomes, like total points scored or first team to score.
  3. Game Props: Wagers on occurrences within the game, such as total turnovers or the margin of victory.
Can I Bet on Passing Yards and Touchdowns for a Quarterback?

Yes, betting on a quarterback's passing yards and touchdowns is a common NFL player prop. Sportsbooks set a benchmark for these stats, and you can wager on whether the actual performance will be over or under that number. These bets allow you to focus on the quarterback's contribution to the game, regardless of the final outcome.

How Do Rushing Yards Prop Bets Work?

Rushing yards prop bets involve wagering on the total number of rushing yards a player will gain in a game. The sportsbook sets a projected yardage total, and you bet on whether the player will achieve over or under that amount. Factors like the player's recent form, the strength of the opposing defense, and the offensive line's performance can influence this prop bet.

How Does Defense Affect Prop Bets?

Defense plays a significant role in prop betting, especially for player props like passing yards and rushing yards. A strong defense can limit a player's performance, affecting the outcome of your bet. Analyzing defensive matchups helps you make informed decisions when placing prop bets.

Strategies and Tips for NFL Prop Betting

What Are Some Tips for Betting on NFL Props?
  1. Research Thoroughly: Analyze player and team statistics, recent performances, and matchups.
  2. Compare Odds: Shop around different sportsbooks to find the best NFL odds for your prop bets.
  3. Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with injury reports, weather conditions, and other factors that might affect the game.
  4. Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for your betting activities and stick to it.
  5. Avoid Bias: Base your bets on data and analysis rather than personal preference.
How Can I Bet Responsibly on NFL Props?

Responsible betting involves:

  • Setting Limits: Establish a budget for how much you are willing to wager.
  • Time Management: Limit the amount of time you spend on betting activities.
  • Seeking Help if Needed: If betting is causing stress or financial issues, seek support from professional organizations.
  • Understanding Risks: Recognize that all betting carries risk, and there are no guaranteed wins.

Prop Betting in Different Contexts

Are Prop Bets Available During the Super Bowl?

Yes, the Super Bowl is one of the most popular events for prop betting. Sportsbooks offer an extensive range of NFL player props and other prop bets, including unique options like the length of the national anthem or the outcome of the coin toss. Super Bowl prop bets allow bettors to engage with various aspects of the game and festivities.

How Does the Regular Season Differ from the Playoffs in Prop Betting?

During the regular season, prop bets are available for all NFL games, focusing on a wide range of players and teams. In the playoffs, the stakes are higher, and teams may adjust their strategies. Playoff prop bets might have sharper lines and require more in-depth analysis due to the increased competitiveness. Additionally, fewer games mean sportsbooks and bettors can concentrate more on each matchup.

How Do Playoffs Impact Prop Betting?

The playoffs can impact prop betting by:

  • Changing Team Strategies: Teams might rely more heavily on star players.
  • Increased Player Performance: Some players elevate their game during high-pressure situations.
  • Adjusted Odds: Sportsbooks may offer different odds based on playoff dynamics.
Can I Place Prop Bets on the Chicago Bears?

Yes, you can place prop bets on the Chicago Bears during both the regular season and playoffs. Sportsbooks offer various props related to the Bears, such as player performance (e.g., rushing yards for the running back), team statistics, and game events. Betting on your favorite team can be exciting but remember to bet responsibly.

Odds and Sportsbooks

Where Can I Find the Best NFL Odds for Prop Bets?

To find the best NFL odds for prop bets:

  • Compare Multiple Sportsbooks: Different sportsbooks may offer varying odds on the same prop bet.
  • Use Odds Comparison Websites: These platforms aggregate odds from various sportsbooks for easy comparison.
  • Look for Promotions: Some sportsbooks offer enhanced odds or special promotions for NFL prop bets.
What is the Role of Sportsbooks in Prop Betting?

Sportsbooks are responsible for setting the odds and lines for prop bets. They analyze data, consider betting patterns, and adjust odds to balance their risk. Sportsbooks also provide the platform for placing bets, managing wagers, and paying out winnings. They play a crucial role in the betting experience by offering a variety of prop betting options.

Prop Betting in Other Sports

Is Prop Betting Available for Other Sports Like NBA, MLB, and NHL?

Yes, prop betting is available across various sports, including the NBA, MLB, and NHL. Similar to NFL prop bets, you can wager on individual player performances and specific events within games. For example:

  • NBA: Bet on a player's total points, rebounds, or assists.
  • MLB: Wager on a pitcher's total strikeouts or a batter's hits.
  • NHL: Bet on a player's total shots on goal or goals scored.
How Does the League Influence Prop Betting?

The league can influence prop betting through:

  • Rule Changes: Adjustments in rules can affect game dynamics and player statistics.
  • Scheduling: The frequency of games and rest periods can impact player performance.
  • Trends in Play Style: Shifts in offensive or defensive strategies across the league can affect prop bet outcomes.
How Do I Bet on Player Yards in NFL Prop Bets?

To bet on player yards in NFL prop bets:

  1. Choose a Sportsbook: Select a reputable sportsbook that offers NFL prop bets.
  2. Navigate to NFL Player Props: Find the section dedicated to player prop bets for the specific game.
  3. Select the Player and Stat: Choose the player and the yardage stat you want to bet on, such as passing yards or rushing yards.
  4. Decide on Over or Under: Determine whether you think the player will achieve over or under the projected yardage.
  5. Place Your Bet: Enter your wager amount and confirm the bet.
<p>With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology and startups Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work is about providing clear factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence based and accessible.</p><p>At RG Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and responsible gambling that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.</p>
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Paruyr Shahbazyan started his business career in 2000 as an entrepreneur. Over 13 years he learned business and leadership, so he laid the foundation for his career.

In 2013 Paruyr entered the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating. This online media he led until 2020. The platform was focused on in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting and got a reputation for quality content.

In 2022 Paruyr co-founded Azuro, decentralized betting protocol. This shows his commitment to technology in the sports betting space. Through all these experiences Paruyr has been shaping and influencing the betting industry, setting new trends and standards.

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Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief

With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology and startups Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work is about providing clear factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence based and accessible.

At RG Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and responsible gambling that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.

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