Mastering NFL Point Spread Betting

In points spread betting, NFL sportsbooks establish a margin—referred to as the point spread—to level the playing field between two teams, giving the underdog a perceived advantage while slightly disadvantaging the favorite. 

This system makes football spread betting interesting, giving bettors more options. For instance, consider a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals, where the point spread might look something like this:

In this scenario, if you're betting on the Bills, they must win the game by more than 4.5 points for your bet to pay out. On the flip side, if you place your wager on the Bengals, they can lose by up to 4.5 points or win outright for you to win the bet.

The accompanying betting odds, such as -110, indicate the payout structure. In this example, to potentially win $100, you would need to wager $110. 

NFL point spreads are not randomly assigned; they are meticulously crafted by NFL sportsbooks, balancing statistical analysis, team dynamics, and market trends. Below are the most critical factors influencing NFL spreads:

1. Home Field Advantage

According to PointsBet trading director Jay Croucher, a team playing on their home turf typically receives a 1.5-2-point advantage in the point spread, reflecting crowd support, travel fatigue for the visiting team, and familiarity with the field.

2. Injury Reports

Key player injuries heavily influence point spreads. For example, when Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals was sidelined in the 2024 regular season, sportsbooks adjusted the spread for the Bengals’ next game from +2.5 to +6. The absence of a star quarterback or key defensive player significantly shifts betting lines, offering sports bettors an opportunity to capitalize on updated spread bets.

3. Public Perception and Betting Action

Public sentiment often disrupts NFL betting odds. In the past, teams like the Dallas Cowboys or the New England Patriots frequently saw tighter spreads due to their popularity, regardless of recent performance.

4. Recent Performance Trends

Teams performing exceptionally well or poorly influence how spreads are set. For example, the Buffalo Bills’ final five-game winning streak in 2023 saw their point spreads inflate, moving from -3 to -9 in just two weeks. On the other hand, the New England Patriots' underwhelming 2024 NFL season has resulted in more favorable spreads for bettors willing to back them as underdogs.

5. Weather Conditions and Venue Factors

Weather impacts point spreads as well, especially for outdoor games. In a December 2023 game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, strong winds and freezing temperatures caused the total points line to drop by 5 points, and the Packers’ spread tightened from -4.5 to -3 as bettors factored in unpredictable conditions affecting the final score.

Now that you understand the basics of point spread betting, it's time to move into some well-known NFL spread bet strategies:

1. Shopping for the Best Line

Many sportsbooks offer slightly different point spreads for the same game. For example, going into Week 15 of the NFL regular season, here are the odds from three popular NFL sportsbooks:

2. Betting on Underdogs in Divisional Matchups

Divisional games tend to be more competitive due to the familiarity between the teams in the same division. In 2024, a game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys saw the Cowboys favored by 9 points. However, divisional matchups are often closer, and the Giants covered the spread, losing by only 5 points.

3. Hedging Bets

If you have a wager on a team to cover the spread, you might hedge your bet by placing a smaller bet on the other team's money line to mitigate potential losses.

4. NFL Against the Spread (ATS) Betting

ATS betting, or against the spread, involves wagering how teams perform relative to the point spread rather than just betting on wins and losses. Some teams consistently perform well against the spread, even when they lose games.

Top 10 NFL ATS Records (Last 5 Years): Lions Dominate with 61% Cover Rate.

Case Study: Kansas City Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Performance (12/25/2023–12/8/2024)

The Kansas City Chiefs demonstrated a 10-9-1 record against the spread (ATS) over 20 NFL games. This record shows the team’s mixed consistency in covering point spreads. Because of the Chiefs' perceived success, most sportsbooks set harder spreads for Kansas City due to their strong reputation and Super Bowl contender status. While they succeeded in covering the spread in some evenly matched NFL games, particularly as underdogs, they struggled with larger spreads against weaker teams.

Key Insights:

• Underdog Success: The Chiefs excelled when positioned as underdogs, covering spreads in games against tougher competition, such as the Bills (1/21/2024) and the 49ers (10/20/2024).
• Struggles with Large Spreads: In games where they were heavily favored (e.g., -10.5 vs. Panthers, -13.5 vs. Raiders), they often failed to cover, even though they won outright.
• Close Margins: The Chiefs had several close ATS decisions, including a push against the Chargers (9/29/2024).
• Low-Scoring Trends: With a relatively high number of games hitting the under, their defense often kept games within reach.

Even experienced bettors can fall into traps when betting on NFL point spreads. These mistakes can cost you big time. Here are the most common pitfalls, why they matter, and examples from recent NFL seasons:

1. Ignoring Key Numbers

Key numbers are important in point spread betting because certain scoring margins (3, 7, 10) are the most common outcomes in NFL games because of the scoring structure of touchdowns, field goals, and extra points.

• Why It Matters:
  • Many NFL games end with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points because those are the most common scoring plays (field goals and touchdowns).
  • Ignoring key numbers can cause you to lose on spreads just above or below those numbers.
• Example:
  • In the 2021 AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs were -7 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The game ended with the Bengals losing by 3 points in overtime. Bettors who bet the Chiefs at -7 pushed (no win or loss), but those who ignored line movement and bet -7.5 lost.

Understanding that most NFL games margin of victory is typically 3 and 7 can help inform your bets

2. Emotional Betting

Betting on your favorite team rather than objective analysis is a common mistake. This leads to biased decision-making, especially when your favorite team is involved.

• Why It Matters:
  • Emotionally driven bets ignore important data like injuries, team matchups, and trends.
  • Bettors who always back their favorite team overestimate their chances, especially against stronger opponents or in tough situations.
• Example:
  • In the 2022 regular season, the Green Bay Packers were +4 underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. Many Packers fans bet on their team out of loyalty even though the Bills dominated both sides of the ball. The Bills won 27-17 and covered the spread easily.
  • Bettors should take emotion out of their betting. Base wagers on data like win/loss records, injury reports, and historical trends, not personal allegiance.

3. Overvaluing Favorites

Favorites get heavy public betting, especially when perceived as good teams. But large spreads (10 or more) are notoriously tough to cover, especially in divisional games where the playing field is more even.

• Why It Matters:
  • Large spreads inflate public expectations but ignore game context, matchups, and backdoor covers (when the underdog scores late to cover the spread even though they lose the game).
  • Divisional games are the most unpredictable because teams see each other twice a season and are more familiar with each other’s schemes.
• Example:
  • In the 2021 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were -11.5 against the Washington Football Team in Week 10. Despite Tampa being a Super Bowl contender, Washington covered the spread in a 29-19 upset win. Bettors who overvalued Tampa’s dominance ignored Washington’s strong defense and motivation in a big game.
  • Be wary of double-digit spreads. Look at injuries, divisional rivalries, and the underdog’s recent form before you bet.

Other Point Spread Considerations

• Not Accounting for Line Movement
  • Lines move based on public betting and injury news. Sharp bettors bet early to get the best number before the market adjusts.
  • Example: A spread that opens at -3 may move to -4.5 if the public pounds the favorite. Betting after the line moves reduces value and increases risk.
• Not Considering Weather
  • Extreme weather (heavy wind, rain, or snow) can impact NFL totals and spreads. Underdogs in bad weather tend to perform better as the offense is limited.
  • Example: In the 2020 Week 8 game between the Raiders and Browns, the strong winds and rain led to a 16-6 Raiders win, making the +2.5 underdog bet on the Raiders profitable.

Avoiding Mistakes

• Know the Key Numbers: Focus on 3, 7, and 10. Don’t bet on numbers that miss those unless you find value.
• Avoid Emotional Betting: Use data to remove bias and make objective decisions.
• Be Wary of Big Spreads: Favorites with 10 or more points often don’t cover, especially in divisional games or against strong defenses.
• Watch Line Movement: Bet early when you can to get the best number, especially around key numbers.
• Consider Game Context: Look at team form, injuries, weather, and divisional rivalries before you bet.

Betting on the NFL point spread is a straightforward process:

1. Choose a Licensed Sportsbook: Select a licensed online sportsbook that you have vetted by reading user reviews, comparing odds, and assessing the platform.
2. Choose Your Game: Select an NFL game—let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers.
3. Understand the Spread: If the spread is set at Eagles -6.5, this means they must win by at least seven points for your bet to win.
4. Place Your Bet: If you believe the Eagles will win by more than 6.5 points, you bet on them to cover the spread. If you think the Steelers will keep it closer, bet on the Steelers +6.5.
5. Know the Odds: Most point spreads come with American odds, such as -110. This means you'd bet $110 to win $100.
6. Check the Results: Your bet is successful if the team covers the spread—either by winning by more points or losing by fewer points than the spread.