What Happens If You Bet Moneyline And It’s A Tie in an NFL Game?

10 min read
Sep 3, 2024, 1:44 PM
Author
Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer
Last Updated: Sep 17, 2024, 7:24 AM

Understanding Moneyline Bets

Moneyline bets are a fundamental type of wager in sports betting, particularly popular in NFL betting. 

In a moneyline bet, sports bettors simply choose which team they believe will win the game outright. 

Unlike spread bets, the margin of victory is irrelevant in moneyline betting.

When placing an NFL moneyline bet, bettors will likely encounter odds presented in American odds format. These odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager for underdogs (positive odds) or the amount one needs to bet to win $100 for favorites (negative odds).

Tie Games and Moneyline Bets

In the NFL, tie games are a rarer occurrence than in other sports but they do happen. If you bet moneyline and it's a tie, NFL wagers enter a unique situation for bettors and sportsbooks alike.

If you bet on the moneyline and there's a tie, most sportsbooks will grade the bet as a push. This means that the wager amount is returned to the bettor, effectively canceling the bet as if it never happened.

It's important to note that ties are not a common outcome in the NFL. Most games are decided in regulation time or overtime, leading to a clear winner. 

The last NFL tie took place on December 4, 2022. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders played to a 2020 draw with New York missing a field goal as time expired.

However, bettors should be aware of the possibility of a tie and understand how it affects their wagers.

Two-Way Moneylines in NFL Betting

When it comes to NFL betting, the standard moneyline bet is typically a two-way moneyline. 

This type of bet offers two possible outcomes: either Team A wins or Team B wins. Unlike some other sports where draws are more common, NFL games are usually played until a winner is determined, even if it requires overtime.

The two-way moneyline simplifies betting by eliminating the possibility of a tie as a separate betting option.

In the rare event of a tie after overtime, the bet is typically called a push, and the wager amount is returned to the bettor.

Since the introduction of overtime in 1974, less than 1% of all NFL games have ended in a tie.

This low likelihood of draws is why sportsbooks generally offer two-way moneylines for NFL games, in contrast to sports like soccer where three-way moneylines (including a draw option) are more common.

Key Differences Between Moneyline and Spread Bets

While moneyline bets focus solely on picking the outright winner, spread bets introduce a point handicap to level the playing field between favorites and underdogs. 

In spread betting, the favorite must win by more than the specified point spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright.

Unlike moneyline bets, spread bets rarely result in a push due to a tie game. Instead, pushes in spread betting typically occur when the final score margin exactly matches the spread.

Moneyline betting offers a more straightforward approach, as bettors only need to predict which team will win. However, this simplicity often comes with less favorable odds, especially when betting on heavy favorites.

Parlay Implications

Tie games can have significant implications for parlay bets (whether they are same-game or multi-event) that include moneyline selections. 

In a parlay, multiple bets are combined into a single wager, with all selections needing to win for the parlay to pay out.

When a tie occurs in one leg of a parlay, that selection is typically graded as a push and removed from the parlay. The remaining selections continue as a smaller parlay with adjusted odds. 

For example, if a four-team parlay includes a game that ends in a tie, it effectively becomes a three-team parlay.

It's crucial for bettors to understand how their chosen sportsbook handles ties in parlays, as policies may vary. 

Some sportsbooks may grade the entire parlay as a loss if any selection results in a tie, while others may reduce it and continue with the remaining selections.

Calculating Odds and Making Informed Decisions

When dealing with moneyline bets, understanding how to calculate potential profits is essential for making informed decisions. 

American odds, the standard format in NFL betting, can be converted to implied probabilities to better assess the value of a bet.

For positive odds (underdogs), the calculation is: 100 / (odds + 100) = implied probability For negative odds (favorites), it's: |odds| / (|odds| + 100) = implied probability

Example: If the Kansas City Chiefs are listed at -150, their implied probability of winning is 60% (150 / (150 + 100) = 0.6).

Bettors should compare these implied probabilities with their own assessment of the teams' chances to identify potential value bets. 

It's also important to consider factors such as injuries, team form, and head-to-head records when making moneyline bets.

Betting Strategies for Moneyline Bets

Developing a sound strategy for moneyline betting can help improve long-term profitability. 

One approach is to focus on underdogs with positive odds, as these bets offer the potential for larger profits relative to the wager amount.

Another strategy involves betting on slight favorites where the odds aren't too prohibitive. This can provide a balance between the likelihood of winning and the potential profit.

Bettors should also consider the impact of key players, particularly in football where quarterbacks have a significant influence on the game's outcome. Monitoring injury reports and team news can provide valuable insights for making moneyline bets.

It's also worth noting that some bettors prefer to avoid moneyline bets on heavy favorites, as the potential profit may not justify the risk involved. 

In such cases, spread betting or other markets may offer more appealing options.

Conclusion

Understanding how moneyline bets work in the NFL, particularly in the rare event of a tie game, is crucial for sports bettors. While ties are uncommon, knowing how they affect wagers can help bettors make more informed decisions and avoid potential confusion.

Moneyline betting offers a straightforward way to wager on NFL games, focusing solely on picking the outright winner. However, bettors should always consider the odds, implied probabilities, and various factors that can influence the game's outcome before placing their bets.

Whether you're new to sports betting or an experienced bettor, remember that responsible gambling is paramount. Set a budget, stick to it, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

With careful analysis and a solid understanding of how moneyline bets work, including the possibility of ties, you can enhance your NFL betting experience.

<p>Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game in 1998, and he's been writing about them professionally since 2014.</p><p>Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports while growing his expertise in sports data analysis and research.&nbsp;</p><p>Between 2022 and 2023, he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets. In 2024, he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the RG team.</p>
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Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer

Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game in 1998, and he's been writing about them professionally since 2014.

Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports while growing his expertise in sports data analysis and research. 

Between 2022 and 2023, he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets. In 2024, he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the RG team.

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