Mastering the MLB Run Line: A Beginner’s Guide to Point Spread Betting and Run Lines

Betting on run lines is more complicated than wagering on pure wins and losses. Below are some things to consider before making any run-line bets.

Bet Run Lines as a Moneyline Alternative

There are plenty of ways to bet on an MLB game, and some bettors may prefer run-line betting to picking who will win outright.

For example, if a bettor is confident in a favorite's chances, targeting them on the run line could make sense for a higher potential payout. 

• Because the favorite is taking on a handicap of needing to win by 2 or more runs, MLB sportsbooks offer better odds for this wager compared to the moneyline.
• Example:
  • Moneyline: Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100).
  • Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) (bet $100 to win $110).

Why It Makes Sense:

• If a bettor is confident that the favorite will dominate the game and win significantly, the run line offers better value and a higher potential return than the moneyline.

Alternatively, a run-line bet could be a more conservative way of backing an underdog that doesn't require that team to win.

There are positives and negatives associated with run-line bets, but choosing them over moneyline bets or alternate lines could be a good strategy.

Read Teams' Run Line Records to Inform Your Bets

While MLB teams' win-loss records are available by browsing the standings, you may have to dig deeper to find their run-line records.

That's a worthwhile step to take to make an informed bet. Knowing which teams tend to win by two runs and which ones are more likely to win by only one run is helpful. Knowing how teams typically perform against the spread lets you tailor your bet type to the situation.

As an example, in 2020, the Chicago White Sox tied the World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers for the best run-line record of the past five seasons (60.3%). 

Five teams had more wins during the pandemic-shortened season than the White Sox, but 85.7% of their wins came by two runs or more. That information can be helpful for MLB run-line betting as it helps bettors identify teams likely to cover the run line, improving betting strategies.

In most cases, teams' run-line records stay relatively close to 50%. For instance, during the 2024 season, the top record was just 55.6%:

Baseball is complex, and betting on MLB games means considering numerous factors. If you plan to place run-line bets, there is plenty to consider before locking those wagers in.

Research and analysis before placing a bet

Baseball is a statistically-dense sport, and there are plenty of resources you can examine before placing a bet. Here are a couple of resources to be aware of:

Baseball-Savant: The MLB's advanced statistics offshoot site provides information, including advanced data. Not everything on this site is relevant to betting, but the league consistently adds new metrics. Last year, its biggest innovation was the addition of bat-tracking data.

Baseball-Reference: Allowing for in-depth analysis of performance trends and comparisons across eras. Its emphasis on historical data makes it invaluable for understanding long-term patterns, evaluating players and teams, and making informed decisions in research and betting.

FanGraphs: Important because it offers advanced analytics and proprietary statistics, such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average), providing deeper insights into player and team performance. Its focus on advanced metrics makes it a key resource for modern statistical analysis, player evaluation, and strategic decision-making in baseball.

Movement on run line odds in advance of a game can happen for a variety of reasons. One of the common drivers of run line movement is last-minute changes to the lineup or probable pitchers.

Superstar position players can affect odds, but most hitters can't move them much since they only have four or five at-bats in a game.

Starting pitchers have a stronger effect on individual games because they are expected to face 20 or more hitters and pitch more than half of a game (five innings or more.)

If there were a silver bullet for run-line betting, bettors around the U.S. would easily get rich by wagering on baseball, which is not the case. It's important to understand the limitations of any baseball betting tips.

That said, here are a few basic principles that are helpful to know for the next time you place a run line bet on a baseball game:

• It's important to pay attention to each team's starting pitcher. Consider an MLB team that is typically listed as the favorite on most days. Throwing out the wrong pitcher could severely alter their chances of winning.
• Try to get a sense of which relief pitchers are available. Relievers tend to pitch at least one-third of the game collectively; although it's tough to predict who might be the relief pitcher, there are resources like FanGraphs' Roster Resource that can let you know how often relievers have pitched recently. Most do not pitch if they've done so the last two days or they've used 30+ pitches the previous day.
• Make sure you're clear on the difference between the money line records and run line records. A team may have a good win-loss record but have a poor track record of winning by at least two runs. Understanding this distinction helps you tailor your bets:
  • Bet the moneyline on teams that often win close games.
  • Bet the run line on teams that tend to dominate their opponents.

Run-line betting is readily available in the MLB category of all licensed U.S. sportsbooks, and you can place a wager by following these steps:

1. Register for an account with the sportsbook you choose. Make sure you compare odds between multiple sportsbooks to get the best odds.
2. Deposit funds in your account.
3. Navigate to the MLB page. If you are having difficulty finding it, use the search function.
4. Once on the MLB page, choose the game you're interested in betting on.
5. Click on the odds under the 'run line' heading to open a bet slip.
6. Place your wager.

More often than not, the run line odds appear with the three main bets available on these pages: Run Line, Over/Under, and Money Line.

Below is an example from DraftKings Sportsbook that should give you a sense of what to look for:

DraftKings MLB run line odds

So, we’ve covered MLB run line betting. Here are the main points:

• The Run Line:
  • The run line is a 1.5 run spread in baseball betting. The favorite must win by 2+ runs, or the underdog must win or lose by 1 run or less.
• Run Line vs. Moneyline:
  • Moneyline bets are just win or lose. Run line bets add an extra layer of complexity by including the margin of victory or defeat.
  • A team may have a good win-loss record but not a good run line record. You need to separate the two.
• To Consider:
  • Starting pitcher, bullpen, and historical trends.
  • Research team run line records and use reliable sources like Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.
• Cautious Approach:
  • Historical data shows even the best teams don’t cover the run line 60% of the time.
  • So, run line outcomes are inherently unpredictable.

Final Thoughts

Run line betting in MLB adds another layer of strategy to evaluating teams. It requires looking at both the numbers and game day variables. The fixed spread is consistent across games, but the outcome is variable, influenced by lineup changes, pitching matchups, and situational play.

Use data to understand team trends, but be realistic about the win rate. The run line is a tool to view the game, but it is not a guarantee.