What is the MLB Run Line?
The run line in baseball betting is one of the simplest forms of wager available. If you are betting on the run line, you are wagering on a favored team to cover a spread or an underdog to avoid losing by a specific margin.
In most cases, the MLB run line is set at 1.5. As a result, betting on the favorite is a wager on that team to win the game by two or more runs. A bet on the run line underdog is a wager on that team winning or losing by a single run.
Several factors go into determining the run line depending on the quality of the teams in the game, the starting pitchers, and the daily lineups.
How MLB run lines work in relation to point spread betting
In sports betting for certain sports like basketball and football, point spreads vary from game to game, with odds remaining similar for each team.
For example, the Dallas Cowboys may be favored by 14.5 points, but the odds on that bet would be similar to the +14.5 bet on their opponent.
With betting on the run line, the spread (-1.5) normally remains the same, but the odds differ.
Run Line Betting Strategies
Betting on run lines is more complicated than wagering on pure wins and losses. Below are some things to consider before making any run-line bets.
Bet run lines as a moneyline alternative
There are plenty of ways to bet on an MLB game, and some bettors may prefer run-line betting to picking who will win outright.
For example, if a bettor is confident in a favorite's chances, it could make sense to target them on the run line for a higher payout. Alternatively, a run-line bet could be a more conservative way of backing an underdog that doesn't require that team to win.
| Team to bet on | Risk Level vs. Moneyline | Payout vs. Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Higher | Higer |
| Underdog | Lower | Lower |
There are positives and negatives associated with run-line bets, but choosing them over moneyline bets or alternate lines can be a profitable strategy.
Read teams' run line records to inform your bets
While MLB teams' win-loss records are available by browsing the standings, you may have to dig deeper to find their run-line records.
That's a worthwhile step to take in order to make an informed bet. Several sports betting websites provide this type of information. It is helpful to know which teams tend to win by two and which ones are more likely to win by only one run.
As an example, the 2020 Chicago White Sox had the best run-line record of the past five seasons (61.7%).
Five teams had more wins than them during the pandemic-shortened season, but 85.7% of their wins came by two runs or more. That's the kind of information that can be helpful to know for MLB run-line betting.
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Shop around for the best run-line odds
Because run lines are readily available on the MLB landing page of major sportsbooks, it is easy to compare odds.
One way to find favorable odds is to compare a bet's implied probability with the run-line record of the team you're backing.
Advanced Run Line Betting Considerations
Baseball is complex, and betting on MLB games means considering numerous factors. If you're planning to place run-line bets, there is plenty to take into account before locking those wagers in.
Research and analysis before placing a bet
Several considerations should be taken into account when betting on any MLB team, whether it's on the run line, money line, or various player props.
Baseball is a statistically-dense sport, and there are plenty of resources you can examine before placing a bet. Two prominent websites for advanced statistical information on teams are FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, and those looking to dig even deeper could consider a Baseball Prospectus subscription.
For information specific to betting, many sportsbooks have articles or videos with picks. Independent sports betting websites also often feature content with suggestions of their own.
Understanding run line movement and its impact on betting
Movement on run line odds in advance of a game can happen for a variety of reasons. One of the common drivers of run line movement is last-minute changes to the lineup or probable pitchers.
Superstar position players can affect odds, but most hitters can't move them much since they only have four or five at-bats in a game. Starting pitchers have a stronger effect on individual games because they are expected to face 20 or more hitters and pitch more than half of a game (five innings or more.)
Point Spread Betting in Baseball
Run line bets are baseball's version of point spread betting. The sport's nature and volatile outcomes mean that games rarely have a big favorite, like in the NFL. In all but extreme cases, the standard is 1.5 runs.
MLB games are close in score
For bettors who are new to baseball, it could be difficult to adjust to how close the games are, even between teams with different talent levels.
Roughly 32.05% of MLB games are decided by a single run or go to extra innings. That means there's a big difference between winning outright and winning by two or more runs.
For example, in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds led the majors with 34 wins by a single run. They only won 82 games overall, meaning 41.5% of their victories did not come by at least two runs.
Getting Started with Baseball Betting
There is plenty of information new baseball bettors should be aware of before taking the plunge. Here are a couple of things that may come in handy for those looking to take the plunge.
How to place a bet on the MLB run line
Run line betting is readily available on the MLB pages of major sportsbooks.
More often than not, the run line odds appear in the leftmost column of the three bets available on these pages: the run line, over/under, and money line.
Below is an example from DraftKings sportsbook that should give you a sense of what to look for:
Tips for successful baseball betting
If there were a silver bullet for MLB betting, then bettors around the world would be getting rich by wagering on baseball easily, which is not the case. It's important to understand the limitations of any baseball betting tips.
That said, here are a few basic principles that could be helpful to understand for the next time you bet on a baseball game:
- It's important to pay attention to the starting pitchers for each team. One MLB team might be a juggernaut on most days, but throwing out the wrong pitcher could severely alter their chances.
- Try to get a sense of which relief pitchers are available. Relievers tend to collectively pitch at least one-third of the game, although it's tough to predict who might come in there are resources like FanGraphs' Roster Resource that can at least let you know how often relievers have pitched recently. Most do not pitch if they've done so the last two days or they've used 30+ pitches the previous day.
- Make sure you're clear on the difference between the money line records and run line records. A team may have a good win-loss record but have a poor track record of winning by at least two runs.
- Keep injury reports in mind, and look up starting lineups. A baseball team can look very different in mid-August than in early May. Knowing precisely who's available for games is important.
MLB Run Line FAQ
What is the MLB Run Line?
What does betting on the run line mean in MLB?
A bet on the run line covers a wager on a favored team to cover a spread or an underdog to avoid losing by a specific margin, set at 1.5. In essence, it is a bet that the favorite will win by two or more runs, or the underdog will win or lose by one run.
How MLB run lines work in relation to point spread betting
How do MLB run lines differ from point spreads in other sports?
Unlike sports such as basketball and football, which will have varying point spreads, the run line in baseball is always set at 1.5 runs.
The odds, however, will change. Using this example, a favorite would have to win by two runs, where the odds might be different from the underdog.
Run Line Betting Strategies
What are some strategies for betting on MLB run lines?
The strategies include using a run line for higher payouts as an alternative to taking a confident favorite on the moneyline or taking an underdog as a safer bet.
It's good to look back and review teams' run line records to give insight into bets while shopping for the best available odds across different sportsbooks.
Advanced Run Line Betting Considerations
What advanced factors should be considered when betting on run lines?
Advanced considerations include statistical research on FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, consideration of changes due to lineup or pitcher updates, and the role of the starter and reliever in the game.
Getting Started with Baseball Betting
How can beginners start betting on the MLB run line?
First, beginners should find run-line bets in the MLB section of big sportsbooks, marked in the leftmost column across over/under and money-line bets.
They also need to be up to date on injury reports about starting pitchers or relievers to keep bets updated.
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