MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI): No Run First Inning Prop Betting

Team total betting is available at major sportsbooks, and you can place a wager by following these steps:

• Register for an account with a licensed sportsbook. The criteria you choose are up to you; some bettors are looking for the best odds, while others prioritize bonuses and promotions.
• Deposit funds in your account. Make sure you know what deposit and withdrawal options your chosen sportsbook has.
• Navigate to the baseball game you're interested in. If you are having difficulty finding it, use the search function.
• Look for NRFI markets. Depending on the sportsbook, they may have their own category or be listed under 'Game Props.'
• Make your wager.

When crafting an NRFI betting strategy, MLB bettors consider several factors. These factors can impact the chances of a scoreless first inning and help you make a more informed decision.

Look at the Top of the Lineup

Teams with elite hitters at the top of their lineup are likelier to score early. One resource to learn more about which MLB clubs have the most production from the top of their lineups is FanGraphs' team leaders stats.

You can select splits for how hitters hitting in each slot in the order perform on this page using a variety of metrics like batting average, total bases, OPS, and wRC+.

The screenshot below shows an example where the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers had a far better OPS for hitters batting first than any other team, largely due to the performance of NL MVP Shohei Ohtani.

This outstanding production out of the leadoff spot helped make it inadvisable to make NRFI bets on Dodgers games.

Conversely, the Chicago White Sox got a .600 OPS from the first slot in a lineup in 2024, with the Kansas City Royals producing the second-lowest number (.604), making those teams possible NRFI targets. The best NRFI bets come in games where both offenses are weak, or both starting pitchers are excellent.

Starting pitchers are a key factor in NRFI bets and significantly affect NRFI odds.

Check the pitchers’ stats, including their first-inning runs allowed, strikeout rate, and overall performance. Pitchers with a history of limiting early scoring are good for NRFI bets.

When evaluating pitcher statistics, consider metrics relevant to NRFI wagering to give yourself an edge. Below is a rundown of some pitcher stats and their relevance.

Where is the Game?

The location of the game can also impact NRFI bets. Ballparks with pitcher-friendly dimensions and weather conditions can increase the chances of a scoreless first inning.

Weather, altitude, and field dimensions can affect the game and should be considered when making NRFI bets. For example, games in parks that suppress offense might be better NRFI betting opportunities.

Let’s look at some real-life NRFI bets in 2024 and team records for MLB teams like the Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Philadelphia Phillies on this wager type.

Washington Nationals: Washington finished the season ranked 25th in the majors in scoring while allowing the seventh-most runs. That statistical profile and the clubs' lack of above-average starters should have made them an ambiguous NRFI play, but bets of that type were successful on 79.01% of their games. Even if the NRFI odds weren't particularly generous for them as the season progressed, bettors who backed them consistently on this wager type likely did well.

Chicago White Sox: The 2024 White Sox set the single-season MLB loss record. They scored nearly 100 runs fewer than any other club in the majors and conceded the third-most. While their opponents scored plenty, Chicago's offensive ineptitude was stronger, and they tied with Washington with an NFRI success rate of 79.01%. One interesting wrinkle for Chicago was that, unlike the Nationals, the team had one outstanding starting pitcher in Garrett Crochet. The combination of his excellence and the White Sox's inability to score made for strong NFRI opportunities for bettors.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona Diamondbacks were on the other end of the spectrum from Chicago and Washington. Arizona led the majors in scoring (886 runs), which translated to MLB's lowest NFRI rate, 61.11%. Not only were the Diamondbacks good at scoring runs, but the top of their lineup was potent. The team ranked seventh or better in OPS from the first, second, and third spots in the order.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies had MLB's second-lowest NRFI success rate (62.35%). Only four teams scored more total runs than Philadelphia, and the Phillies were blessed with a stellar starting rotation featuring stars like Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez.

(NRFI Records from TeamRankings.com, Runs scored rankings from FanGraphs)

In order to bet on baseball responsibly and incorporate NRFI wagers into your overall sports betting strategy without straining yourself financially, here are some principles you should always keep in mind:

• Research: Research the starting pitchers, team lineups, and game conditions before you bet on NRFI. Use stats to make informed decisions.
• Diversify: Don’t bet NRFI only. Combine with other bets, full-game bets, player props, or other prop bets to spread risk.
• Bankroll Management: Set a budget for your betting and stick to it. Don’t chase losses by betting more than you can afford.
• Bet Small: Only bet a small percentage of your bankroll on each bet. This will minimize losses and allow you to bet for a longer period.
• Stay Informed: Keep up to date with the latest news and updates on teams, players, and game conditions. This will affect your betting decisions.
• Don’t Bet Emotionally: Make decisions based on data and analysis, not emotions or personal bias towards certain teams or players.
• Track Your Bets: Keep a record of all your bets, wins, and losses. This will help you to evaluate your betting strategy and make adjustments.
• Use Multiple Sportsbooks: Compare odds and lines from different sportsbooks to get the best value for your bets.

We’ve looked at the essential aspects of NRFI betting, breaking down its appeal, mechanics, and strategic considerations.

Below are the key takeaways:

NRFI Betting Defined

• The NRFI bet focuses on whether a scoreless first inning will occur, providing a quick and straightforward option for baseball bettors.
• Its counterpart, the YRFI, offers an alternative for those predicting early scoring in a game.

Factors to Consider

• Analyze starting pitchers and their first-inning stats, such as strikeout rates and first-inning ERA. These metrics are crucial for identifying strong NRFI opportunities.
• Assess team lineups, with attention to the top of the order and offensive tendencies, as elite hitters can sway the likelihood of first-inning runs.
• Consider game conditions, including ballpark dimensions, weather, and altitude, which all influence scoring probabilities.

Strategies

• Conduct thorough research on team form, streaks, injuries, and matchup dynamics to make well-informed wagers.
• Avoid overreliance on trends or surface-level stats—dig deeper into advanced metrics for a more accurate analysis.
• Practice responsible betting by setting budgets, diversifying wagers, and tracking performance to refine your approach over time.

Final Thoughts

NRFI betting offers an accessible option to baseball bettors. By understanding the variables at play in this bet type, you can diversify your strategy and potentially improve your experience.