Strategies for Understanding NHL Betting Trends

7 min read
Jan 31, 2024, 12:51 PM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Fact checked by:
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Founder
Last Updated: Sep 12, 2024, 2:51 PM

Hockey Betting Online

This guide is tailored to demystify betting on the National Hockey League (NHL), providing you with a knowledge to build responsible strategies. From the dynamics of hockey to understanding how to skate through the odds, whether you're an enthusiast or a first-time bettor, this guide offers a fresh perspective on betting within the exciting world of hockey.

Setting the Scene: Selecting a Hockey-Centric Betting Platform

Your NHL betting adventure begins with the right platform. What sets a great NHL betting site apart?

  • Specialized Hockey Betting Markets: Look for platforms that offer a diverse range of NHL-specific betting options.
  • In-Depth Game Analysis and Stats: Top-tier platforms provide detailed game analytics, crucial for informed betting.
  • Live Betting Features: In a sport as dynamic as hockey, live betting options are a must for capturing the thrill of the game.
  • Seasonal Promotions and NHL Bonuses: Seek out sportsbooks that offer special bonuses and promotions during the NHL season and playoffs.
  • Lacing Up: Grasping NHL Betting Basics 
  • NHL Odds: Odds in the NHL can vary more dramatically than in other sports due to factors like team fatigue and travel schedules.

Types of NHL Bets

  • Puck Line Bets: Hockey’s answer to the point spread, usually set at 1.5 goals.
  • Moneyline Bets: Straightforward – pick the team you think will win.
  • Totals (Over/Under): Bet on whether the total goals scored will be over or under a set number.
  • Prop Bets: Wager on specific game events or player performances, like whether Alexander Ovechkin will score a goal.
  • Futures: Long-term bets, such as predicting the Stanley Cup winner at the season's start.

Strategizing Your Play: Advanced NHL Betting Techniques

  • In-Game Dynamics: Understand the importance of line changes, home ice advantage, and goaltender performance. For instance, a team on the second night of a back-to-back might be more likely to underperform.
  • Utilizing Analytics: Dive into advanced statistics like Corsi or Fenwick to gauge team performance beyond traditional stats.
  • Seasonal Shifts and Playoff Intensity: Betting strategies might shift as teams clinch playoff spots or adjust their play style in the postseason.

Key Factors in NHL Betting

  • Star Players and Injuries: A player like Connor McDavid can be a game-changer. Monitor the health and performance of key players.
  • Team Chemistry and Coaching Strategies: Consider the impact of new coaching tactics or mid-season trades, like a major goalie trade that could alter a team's defensive strength.
  • Playing it Safe: Legal and Ethical Betting in the NHL
  • Navigating Legal Waters: Always bet with licensed and regulated sportsbooks, and stay informed about the legal status of sports betting in your area.
  • Ethical Betting: Remember that betting should be a form of entertainment, and avoid any practices that could compromise the integrity of the game.

How Can NHL Public Trends, Bet Percentages, and Splits Help Sports Bettors?

Navigating the NHL betting markets can be daunting, but understanding public trends, bet percentages, and splits can offer crucial insights. Here’s how these elements can assist sports bettors:

NHL Public Trends

Public trends reveal where the majority of bettors are placing their money. By tracking these trends, you can gauge general sentiment around specific games. This information can be pivotal in making informed decisions, either by aligning your bets with the public or strategically betting against them.

Bet Percentages

Bet percentages show the distribution of bets placed on different teams. They allow you to see which teams are receiving the most attention from the public. This data can be especially beneficial when combined with other analytical tools to predict potential market movements and identify undervalued teams.

Money Splits

Money splits provide information about where the actual money is being wagered, as opposed to just the number of bets. This distinction is important because it indicates whether the larger, possibly more informed bettors, are wagering on a particular outcome. By following the money splits, you can detect shifts in the market and make decisions based on where significant stakes are being placed.

Practical Use

  • Informed Decisions: Accessing data directly from sportsbooks ahead of each game allows you to see where both the public money and the percentage of tickets are concentrated. This holistic view can help you make more informed decisions.
  • Strategic Betting: If you notice a significant amount of money placed on a less popular team, it might be worth investigating further. This could indicate that seasoned bettors see potential value in that team, despite the public trend favoring the opponent.
  • Market Analysis: Continuously monitoring these elements throughout the season helps you stay ahead of market shifts. This ongoing analysis can improve your betting strategy, offering a competitive edge over other bettors who may not use such comprehensive data.

By leveraging NHL public trends, bet percentages, and money splits, sports bettors can enhance their strategy and potentially increase their success rate. Utilizing these insights, you can navigate the complex betting markets with greater confidence and precision.

What is Sharp Money and How is It Identified in NHL Betting Trends?

Sharp money refers to bets placed by professional gamblers, often referred to as "sharps," who are known for their expertise and larger wager amounts. Identifying sharp money in NHL betting trends involves a comparison between the total number of bets and the total handle (the amount of money wagered) on a particular game.

Identifying Sharp Money

To identify sharp money, consider the following scenario involving an NHL matchup:

  • Penguins vs Flyers:
    • Bet Distribution:
      • 40% of total bets are on the Penguins moneyline.
      • 60% of total bets are on the Flyers moneyline.
    • Handle Distribution:
      • 70% of the total handle is on the Penguins moneyline.
      • 30% of the total handle is on the Flyers moneyline.

In this example, although fewer bets are placed on the Penguins (40%), a larger portion of the total money wagered (70%) is on them. This discrepancy indicates that sharp gamblers are placing substantial bets on the Penguins.

Why Sharp Money Matters

Sharps, being seasoned bettors, typically invest larger sums of money based on advanced data analysis and deep knowledge of the sport. Bookmakers pay close attention to the betting patterns of these expert bettors. When they notice a significant mismatch, such as a higher percentage of the handle compared to the number of bets, they may adjust the odds accordingly to balance the action and minimize risk.

By following these trends, recreational bettors can gain insights into where the expert money is flowing, potentially making more informed bets themselves.

How Online Sportsbooks Adjust Lines Based on Expert Bets

Online sportsbooks have a keen eye for identifying seasoned bettors. When these experts place their bets, the sportsbooks take note and often make quick adjustments to the betting lines.

Here's a step-by-step look at how this process works:

Identification of Expert Bettors: Sportsbooks use advanced algorithms and historical data to pinpoint expert bettors. These seasoned bettors have a track record of consistently making profitable bets, which signals their expertise.

Tracking Bets: Once an expert places a bet, the sportsbook’s system flags it. This immediate recognition allows the sportsbook to act swiftly.

Adjusting the Lines: After identifying an expert's bet, the sportsbook adjusts their betting lines. These adjustments help the sportsbook manage risk and maintain profitability. For instance, if an expert bets on Team A, the line may shift in favor of Team B to balance the betting action.

Public Influence: The adjusted line is then presented to the general public. By shifting the line, sportsbooks encourage more bets on the opposite side, leveling out their exposure and ensuring balanced action.

Example in Action

Imagine a veteran bettor places a substantial wager on the Montreal Canadiens. The sportsbook system recognizes this and quickly shifts the betting line. What initially might have been -150 for the Canadiens could move to -170. This change prompts other bettors to reconsider their options, possibly spreading their bets more evenly.

In essence, by closely monitoring the moves of expert bettors, sportsbooks can swiftly adapt and adjust their lines to ensure balanced betting and reduced risk. This dynamic strategy helps them stay ahead in the competitive world of sports betting.

What Data Do Experts Provide from Sportsbooks ahead of NHL Games?

Experts provide two key pieces of data from sportsbooks ahead of NHL games:

  • Public Money Breakdown: This shows the total amount of money wagered by the general public on each team.
  • Ticket Percentage Split: This indicates the percentage of betting tickets placed on each side of the game.

These insights are updated nightly, ensuring bettors have the freshest information to guide their decisions. By knowing both where the majority of money and tickets are concentrated, you gain a clearer picture of public betting trends, helping you make more informed wagers.

Why This Data Matters

  • Informed Decision-Making: Understand how the public and sharps (expert bettors) are betting.
  • Market Movement: Gauge potential line movements or discrepancies in the odds.

With this comprehensive data at your fingertips, you're better equipped to navigate the complexities of NHL betting.

<p>With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups, Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work provides clear, factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research, so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence-based, and accessible.</p><p>At RG, Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction, RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and sports entertainment that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go-to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.</p>
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Meet our Authors

Paruyr Shahbazyan started his business career as an entrepreneur in 2000. Over 13 years, he learned business and leadership, which laid the foundation for his career.

In 2013, Paruyr entered the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating, an online media platform he led until 2020. The platform focuses on in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting and has gained a reputation for quality content.

In 2022, Paruyr co-founded Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol. This shows his commitment to technology in the sports betting space. Through all these experiences, Paruyr has been shaping and influencing the betting industry, setting new trends and standards.

Innovation in sportsbetting comes from a deep understanding of both technology and the human element of sports.

Strategic Vision

Paruyr's vision is to revolutionize the sports entertainment industry by integrating technology. He sees the future of sports entertainment as a blend of traditional sports knowledge with innovative tech solutions, like decentralized protocols, to enhance user experience and fairness. He aims to create platforms that are not only user-friendly but also uphold the highest standards of ethical reporting, contributing to a more responsible and enjoyable sports culture.

Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief

With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups, Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work provides clear, factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research, so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence-based, and accessible.

At RG, Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction, RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and sports entertainment that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go-to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.

Cristina Varela Galan
Cristina Varela Galan
Problem Gambling Expert

Cristina used to work as a Psychology Assistant in the Bizkaia Pathological and Risky Gamblers Association. She was also part of a research team in Deusto University, specializing in pathological gambling area. While working there, she managed to develop her own project 

 “Exploring the association between emotional regulation, alexithymia, stressful life events and gambling in adolescent and young adult women”.

Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer

Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.

Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022. 

Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the RG team.

Sergey Demidov
Sergey Demidov
Head of News Department

Sergey has been in sports journalism since 2007 as a reporter, editor, and manager. He has covered the Olympic Games, soccer World Cups, the World Cup of Hockey in 2016, the European championships, the Stanley Cup Finals, IOC events, and many others. Sergey interviewed the sport's greatest athletes, coaches, and executives. Since 2016, he has been an Independent Senior Editor of NHL.com/ru.

Anna Kravtcova
Anna Kravtcova
Problem Gambling Expert

Ph.D. in organizational psychology, an internationally certified psychologist (EuroPsy 2022, Cognitive behavioural therapy of mindfulness 2020, International Society for Emotional Intelligence 2017, Russian Psychological society 2014, American Psychological Association(Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychologist) 2011), speaker of many international conferences (USA, Brazil, Portugal, Czech Republic, Russia, etc.). TEDx speaker.

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