Can NBA Bounce Back in Ratings With Its Christmas Day Games?

The New York Knicks will host the San Antonio Spurs at the Madison Square Garden (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Will the NBA find a nice gift under the Christmas tree? Or will it discover a lump in its stocking?

The NBA will showcase five marquee games on Christmas Day, an annual ritual that often marked the unofficial start of the season and interested both the league’s devout and casual fans. It seems inevitable, however, that the NBA’s upcoming Christmas Day slate will mark the latest example of its recent low ratings.

The primary reason? Well, most rightfully still prioritize spending the holiday with their actual family and friends instead of with their television or phone. The other reason? The NFL will showcase its own games for the fourth consecutive year.

With that, inevitable commentary will arise again on what contributed to the NBA’s relatively low ratings and possible decline. Is cord-cutting and holiday priorities a legitimate variable, or a convenient excuse? Does this simply reflect the NFL’s vast superiority in fan interest, or does this also suggest the NBA has a diminished product? Does the NBA have too many linear and streaming options that are not always user friendly?

These are all fair questions for the NBA to address during the rest of the regular season. But the NBA isn’t exactly fretting over these developments. The NBA secured a media rights deal with ABC/ESPN , NBC and Amazon worth $76 billion for the next 11 years. The NBA maintains a prominent presence on streaming and social media platforms, which the league considers significant in reaching a young and global demographic. As for the Christmas Day games itself, the NBA does not have any fundamental issues that will explain any possible ratings dip.  

Unlike some parts of the regular season, the NBA will feature five marquee games that should resonate with any audience.

An iconic franchise (New York Knicks) plays host at the World’s Most Famous Arena (noon ET) against the San Antonio Spurs and a potential generational star (Victor Wembanyama). The Dallas Mavericks play the Minnesota Timberwolves (2:30 pm ET), which features an international star (Dallas’ Luka Dončić) and one of the league’s most popular young talents that will play his first NBA game on Christmas Day (Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards).  

The Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers game (5 pm ET) should draw interest because both teams have passionate fanbases, the Celtics are the defending NBA champs and they have likely three All-Stars on their team (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday). When the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors play (8 pm ET), LeBron James and Stephen Curry will square off against each other for the fifth time on Christmas Day nearly four months after winning gold together at the Paris Olympics. The Phoenix Suns-Denver Nuggets game (10:30 pm ET) features one of the NBA’s most prolific scorers (Phoenix’s Kevin Durant) and a three-time MVP that posts triple doubles nearly by the game (Denver’s Nikola Jokić). 

Will either of those games draw higher ratings than the two NFL games featuring the Kansas City Chiefs-Pittsburgh Steelers (1 pm ET) and Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans (4:30 pm ET)? Probably not. But the NBA has done everything it can to give its games the best visibility.  

While Netflix will televise both NFL games, the NBA will feature all five of its games on network television (ABC), cable (ESPN and streaming (ESPN+, Disney +).  Lopsided outcomes and injuries have always contributed to ratings decreases, but the NBA has put enough safeguards around that.

James and Curry will be an inevitable ratings draw. They squared off in four consecutive NBA Finals (2015-18). They each play for franchises with a strong loyal and global fanbase. They inevitably will spark speculation on whether they’ll play together on an NBA team (they won’t). Despite the Nuggets and Suns’ inconsistency, Durant and Jokić have produced masterpieces nearly any time they play. Though Suns guard Devin Booker will miss the game with a groin injury, Durant’s stature should still draw enough viewer interest.

Currently, the Celtics-Sixers game represents the only matchup that elicits concerns about star player availability. Sixers center Joel Embiid has managed a left knee injury all season, and he unexpectedly missed last year’s Christmas game against the Miami Heat with a sprained right ankle. Fair to argue the NBA should have put more faith in the Milwaukee Bucks fixing last season’s hiccups in time for Christmas than to bank on the Sixers’ Embiid or Paul George staying healthy. Other than that, though, the NBA couldn’t have possibly done anything else to make its Christmas Day games a better ratings draw.