Why Connor Bedard Had the Biggest NHL Attendance Impact in the Last Decade

Do Top NHL Draft Picks Actually Boost Attendance?

Each NHL draft brings new players and new hope. But does picking first actually lead to bigger crowds?

NHL teams often center a lot of their future, hopes, and marketing strategies around their first draft pick. This usually means big jersey sales, media buzz, and a hope for better results. A measurable metric for this excitement is whether fans show up at the stadium or not.

We looked at attendance data from 2014 to 2024 (Hockeydb.com, NHL.com), comparing team averages before and after each No. 1 pick’s rookie season. Some players clearly helped boost turnout. Others didn’t. It often came down to how good the team was, where they played, and what else was going on.

First Impressions: How Rookies Boost Attendance

Connor Bedard came in with sky-high expectations. In his rookie year, Chicago’s average home attendance rose nearly 10%. That happened even though the Blackhawks finished last in their division. Right after winning the lottery, the team sold over $5 million in season ticket packages. Bedard brought buzz, and fans responded.

Buffalo had a similar jump with Owen Power. Attendance went up 55% in 2022–23—one of the biggest leaps in the league. Some of that came from Power, but a lot of it was about the Sabres finally playing competitive hockey again and COVID restrictions being lifted. Fans from both sides of the border came back.

Montreal’s numbers also jumped up 36% when Juraj Slafkovský debuted. But that was also mainly because pandemic rules had kept the Bell Centre nearly empty the year before. The increase wasn’t about the rookie as much as it was about getting back to full capacity.

Toronto’s arena is usually full no matter what, but Auston Matthews’ debut still brought a small boost—around 3%. More importantly, the Leafs made the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Not every top pick leads to a spike. Connor McDavid didn’t change much in Edmonton because the team was already playing to packed houses every night. Jack Hughes arrived in New Jersey with plenty of attention, but the team’s struggles continued, and that showed in the stands. A few years earlier, the Devils had seen a 4.3% bump when Nico Hischier debuted—coinciding with an improved finish of 5th in the division. That contrast highlights how performances often help translate hype into attendance.

Fans Follow Wins, Not Just Names

A big name can help, but fans usually want to see results. When the Leafs made the playoffs in Matthews’ rookie year, people took notice. Buffalo’s rise with Power didn’t include a postseason spot, but it showed progress. With New Jersey and Hughes, the team stayed stuck—and so did attendance.

Sometimes it takes a season for fan momentum to build. That’s common in markets where trust needs to be earned back. It’s also part of a broader trend—across many sports, in-person attendance has declined slightly over the past decade as fans opt for easier, cheaper viewing from home.

Not All Markets React the Same

Some teams—like Toronto, Montreal, and Edmonton—can count on crowds no matter what. Fans show up because the sport has deep cultural roots in these cities and the teams have passionate, generational fan bases. Media and sponsor support is also stronger in these markets, which helps sustain high attendance regardless of results.

In smaller or less traditional hockey markets, the story can be different. Florida lost about 20% of its crowd in Aaron Ekblad’s rookie year. In addition to the team’s ongoing struggles on the ice, the Panthers reduced the number of free and discounted tickets that had previously helped keep attendance afloat. Without that cushion, it became harder to fill the building. Nineteen of their home games drew fewer than 10,000 fans, including one with just 7,311 people—the lowest NHL crowd recorded since 2011.

And then there’s the COVID factor. In 2020–21, Alexis Lafrenière debuted in front of mostly empty seats in New York.

San Jose offers a recent case. In 2024–25, Macklin Celebrini’s first season, the Sharks saw a 4.87% increase in attendance despite finishing last in the Pacific Division. While the team continued to struggle, the modest bump suggests that even a hint of optimism around a new franchise player can bring fans back.

Away Game Attendance: A Closer Look

To better understand player impact beyond home games, we reviewed a sample of away game attendance figures for Connor Bedard, Auston Matthews, and Jack Hughes across major and smaller-market arenas.

The pattern was clear: visits to already packed venues like Madison Square Garden or the Bell Centre didn’t significantly move attendance. These arenas typically operate at or near full capacity regardless of the opponent, leaving little room for noticeable changes.

However, in smaller or less consistently sold-out markets—like Florida and Arizona—the arrival of a top rookie often led to measurable bumps. In some cases, attendance on game day rose by several hundred or even a few thousand compared to the home team’s seasonal average.

This suggests that while big markets are already saturated, emerging stars can still drive meaningful crowd increases in smaller venues where there is more room to grow.

What It All Means

Top picks can bring excitement, but it takes more than talent alone to get more fans in the stadium. Where a player lands, what shape the team is in, and whether fans believe things are actually changing all play a role.

In the end, attendance isn’t just about hype. It’s about how fans feel about the direction of the team, and whether it’s worth their time and money to show up.

Looking back over the past 10 years, the takeaway is clear: No. 1 picks bring hope, but real turnout depends on what the team builds around them.