The modern scoring explosion in the NBA didn’t start with pace — it started with where teams chose to shoot.
Since the 2013–14 season, teams have nearly doubled their three-point attempts, climbing from 21.5 to 37.6 per game. At the same time, shots at the rim — layups, dunks, and close finishes — have edged upward. What’s missing from this picture? The mid-range. Once the domain of stars like Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan, it’s been largely phased out unless wide open or taken by elite specialists like Kevin Durant.
This shift isn’t about aesthetics — it’s about expected value. A 35% three-pointer yields 1.05 points per shot. A 45% mid-range jumper? Just 0.9. Rim shots convert around 65% — making them the most valuable two-pointer available. Coaches and analytics departments embraced this math, and over time, offenses became machines of precision.
How Shot Selection Has Changed the League
Season | Offensive Rating | 3PA per Game | % Shots at Rim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013–14 | 106.6 | 21.5 | 29.5% |
| 2015–16 | 106.4 | 24.1 | 30.2% |
| 2017–18 | 108.6 | 29.0 | 31.0% |
| 2019–20 | 110.6 | 34.1 | 32.5% |
| 2021–22 | 112.0 | 35.2 | 33.0% |
| 2023–24 | 115.3 | 35.1 | 33.0% |
| 2024–25 | 114.5 | 37.6 | 33.2% |
As the table shows, this refined shot diet has pushed offensive efficiency to record highs. The league-wide offensive rating climbed from 106.6 to 115.3 in just ten seasons. Even with a slight dip in 2024–25, today’s average offense scores more efficiently than the title-winning Warriors of 2017.
Rules That Reward Offense
Analytics didn’t act alone. The NBA’s rules have tilted the scales toward offense, often by design.
The 2001 introduction of the defensive three-second rule prevented defenders from clogging the paint endlessly. Then came the hand-check ban, which took away defenders’ ability to slow ball-handlers with physicality. But the most dramatic shift came in 2018, when the league enforced “freedom of movement” — cracking down on off-ball grabbing and contact.
Suddenly, it wasn’t just about guarding your man. It was about avoiding fouls while trying to keep up with five elite athletes in space.
The 2022 ban on take fouls in transition added another wrinkle, ensuring fast breaks stay live and open-court scorers can finish plays. Together, these changes have created an environment where defenders are constantly backpedaling — and spacing isn’t just a strategy, it’s a survival mechanism.
Superstar Scorers: System-Proof Weapons
But no matter how cleanly a system is built, it’s the superstars who break it.
Stephen Curry forces defenses to pick him up 30 feet from the hoop. His off-ball movement stretches schemes to their limits. In 2022–23, at age 34, he averaged 29.4 points per game on 66.3% true shooting — numbers that don’t just reflect efficiency, but gravitational force.
Luka Dončić bends defenses differently. He led the NBA in 50-point games in 2022–23 while carrying a usage rate near 37%. He controls tempo, exploits mismatches, and scores at volume — all while creating offense for others. When Luka plays, Dallas scores like a top-five team. When he sits, they crater.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is carving his own lane. In 2024–25, he’s averaging over 33 points per game while shooting 63% true shooting — all without relying on the three. He leads all guards in drives and points in the paint. He doesn’t beat you with flash — he beats you one patient, surgical step at a time.
These stars aren’t just thriving inside their systems — they’re bending those systems to their will. They’re scheme-proof. Defenses prepare for them, game-plan for them, throw double-teams at them — and still, they score.
When Systems Meet Brilliance
This is the modern NBA tension: every team is more efficient, but a few players are unstoppable.
You can build perfect spacing, perfect rotations, perfect second-side actions. But in crunch time, it’s often the individual brilliance — not the system — that makes the difference.
In 2022–23, the NBA saw 25 different 50-point games — the most in over 60 years. That same season, six players averaged over 30 points per game, tying a mark last set in 1962. The floor has risen — but the ceiling? It’s higher than ever.
What Comes Next?
Offense continues to evolve. Spacing, efficiency, and tempo remain core principles. But defenses are adapting: more switching, more length, more creativity.
The next great innovation might come from the defensive side — or the next superstar might push offense into yet another gear. Either way, we’re watching a game in flux, driven by both collective strategy and individual genius.
And right now, no matter how smart your scheme is — there’s always someone ready to break it.
Sukhman Singh
