NHL scouts are debating the 2025 draft class, with Matthew Schaefer emerging as the top prospect for superstar potential (Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)
The common occurrence for NHL drafts is for a far-and-away leader in the clubhouse to be the No. 1 overall pick. The 2024 NHL Draft featured Macklin Celebrini. The NHL was so sure he would go first overall that they had him come to the Draft Lottery Show on ESPN and Sportsnet to interview San Jose after winning the lottery. It also happened in 2023 with Connor Bedard, who was labeled the next Connor McDavid before he even played an entire season in the WHL.
The 2025 NHL Draft could offer more parity, as upwards of five players are currently in the running to be selected first in June 2025. James Hagens was the early frontrunner entering the season, but his play at Boston College has brought more players into the conversation.
Forwards Michael Misa and Porter Martone are torching the OHL at a ferocious pace to start the season, while Matthew Schaefer looks to be the most promising young defenseman since Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes.
But what does this draft look like at the top? RG polled some scouts to understand how the 2025 class is developing.
Matthew Schaefer’s Team Canada Dreams
Schaefer was always going to be a top-five pick this season, thanks to the league valuing puck-moving defensemen. Schaefer is on pace to average well over a point per game in the OHL this season, and could now find himself representing his country as an underager at this year’s World Junior Championship.
Schaefer's inclusion on the preliminary roster isn’t surprising, but what is most shocking is who the Hockey Canada brass left off in favor of him. One source familiar with the Hockey Canada selection process shared some fascinating insights.
“[Zayne] Parekh and [Carter] Yakemchuk not making the initial training camp roster gives us a pretty good idea that the brass sees Schaefer as their offensive defenseman for this tournament," a source told RG.
Hockey Canada rarely picks the 20 best players to represent the country at the World Juniors. Every year, there is a collection of candidates that the public views as snubs, but there is no need for six of the most skilled defensemen. The Hockey Canada brass typically prioritizes one offensive-minded defenseman, with mostly two-way and defensive blueliners taking up the rest of the spots.
Zayne Parekh was the ninth overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft by the Calgary Flames. He had 96 points in 66 games in his draft year and won a Memorial Cup with the Saginaw Spirit. The Flames loved what they saw from him in training camp, but there were some obvious flaws in his game from a defensive and maturity standpoint. The Flames felt he’d be better off spending another year in the OHL, making another Memorial Cup run, and possibly representing his country at the World Juniors.
Carter Yakemchuk was a surprising seventh-overall selection by the Ottawa Senators this year. He didn’t have numbers as high as Parekh, but he had more defensive play and much more physicality. Yakemchuk is a player who more closely resembles Schaefer and would’ve been a good defender for Schaefer to mirror his game after spending some time at the Team Canada camp this month.
Yakemchuk unfortunately won’t be there and Parekh was ultimately a last-minute addition to Team Canada’s camp after Harrison Brunicke went down with an injury. Hockey Canada initially decided to leave the two older players at home. At the time, it was a shocking decision, but according to our source, it tells us much more about Schaefer than the two snubs.
Matthew Schaefer, Future No. 1?
One of the most intriguing parts of the scouting world is when a dark horse emerges at the start of the draft year and steals all the headlines. Last season, Tij Iginla started the year as a late-first-round/early-second-round pick but entered into the top-five conversation by the end of the year. Schaefer looks like this year’s headline-stealer, but he doesn’t have as wide a gap to manage as Iginla did.
When assessing the top part of an NHL draft class, the first thing that comes to mind is star power. After all, teams that finish in the bottom of the NHL standings are often rebuilding and looking to build for the future. Going through all those losses and long seasons only to end up with a mediocre player could deflate a rebuild.
There was Connor Bedard in 2023, while the 2024 draft had Macklin Celebrini. Does the 2025 NHL Draft have an NHL superstar in the making?
“I have a hard time defining ‘superstar.’ It's a fairly subjective word. Schaefer has the best chance of being an elite player.
Perhaps Misa, outside chance that Hagens is too. But Schaefer has the best chance at being a superstar,” a former NHL scout told RG.
Hagens has been the consensus No. 1 since scouts began tracking this draft class. However, early goal-scoring struggles for Hagens at Boston College and growing support for Schaefer have many wondering if he can steal it by season’s end.
“You have to feel sorry for Misa after being left off the Canada U20 roster. He looked ready to dethrone Hagens for the No.1 prospect spot, but not playing in the World Juniors will hurt his stock. If [Porter] Martone and Schaefer make that Canada team, all eyes will be on them and Hagens at the tournament. My money is on Schaefer being the one to pass Hagens,” a CHL scout told RG.
The tide is slowly turning to Schaefer being the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft. It’s hard to read it too soon, but the final roster selections and subsequent tournament performances could paint a clear picture of the 2025 NHL Entry Draft by early January.
Nate Duffett
Nate Duffett is a Canadian sports writer who specializes in hockey. He started his writing career in the betting space but has since branched out into more journalism, including analysis and news from the NHL, MLB, NFL, and NCAA. You can find his other work at ClutchPoints, but RG will be his official home for exclusive content and analysis on critical topics in sports. In his spare time, Nate is also involved in the hockey scouting and coaching world, with these interests shining through in some of his pieces. You can come to Nate's work for his hockey analysis but stick around when he dabbles into other sports during the slower times.
